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Past edition of the "What Ian Can See" WICS trading information newsletter.

Ian's weekly look at the world economic situation and his world view. Members get access to the current edition, archives, chart analysis and one-to-one mentoring on your trading.

October 27th 2019

Hello again, and welcome to this weekend's wee ramble around "stuff".

I say "wee" because my fishing buddies (or one of them, to be completely accurate) has succeeded admirably in giving the rest of us a stinking dose of the cold. Thanks, "Jon"!  Much appreciated, not. Today's effort is thus a brief one and the video updates are going to be a bit of a challenge.....

We managed to get a few salmon on the bank over the week, thank goodness. All were returned to swim again, and hopefully to spawn successfully, so the fishing was reasonable enough given the fact that nowadays the salmon runs are a mere shadow of those of twenty or more years ago.

Furth of fishing, what has been happening out there in the rest of the world?

I would be interested to know, because there's so little that's new to be seen that I'm agog with total boredom, not helped of course by the fact that I'm now on the fifth handkerchief of the morning.

The US of A's banks had what Zerohedge called a "huge liquidity panic" and the Fed had to inject $134bn to prop up the overnight repo market (as I recall, I mentioned "repo" here a few weeks ago, but to save us both the bother of looking for the link, here's one that explains it all.

In Blighty, the Grauniad reports that the "UK High Street" has seen 85000 jobs lost over the past year. You would think that payday lenders would be making hay in such circumstances, yet after the demise of Wonga, QuickQuid has just gone down the Swannee too. Apparently it collapsed due to "thousands of complaints from people who couldn't afford to pay back the loans." I find it hard to get my head around that, in the same way as I find it hard to get my head around Moody's description of them as "unaffordable loans". What the situation is in reality, is that people are defaulting, and that type of debt represents merely the tip of the iceberg of coming defaults.

Meanwhile, across in recession-hit Chermunee, I note that Deutsche Bank plans to dump another 10% of its remaining workforce.

In my view, all the foregoing is a bit like my dose of the cold - it's contagious and spreading rapidly.

Going back to Nellie Trumpland, I note that the S&P 500 index managed to get within the tiniest whisker of its all time high on Friday, while the Dow (DJIA) didn't. Didn't get even near in fact.

So what, Williams? So, 'tis a sign of an extremely fractured market (again, I have rambled on about such on more than one occasion over the years). Adding to the depth of the "fracture" is the overall weakness of what's going on, as evidenced by the very low "a/d ratio", which was a mere 1.28:1. If you don't know about the advance/decline ratio, here's some information thereon for you.

Finally, volume actually fell back on Friday's S&P push up that very nearly hit the all time high.

So methinks that in the greater scheme of things, we're an awful lot nearer a big drop than we are to a big upwards surge. There again, there could still be a pop upwards before gravity exerts its irresistible pressure, but for sure, we're in the end game now.

As far as silly bits and pieces go, there's little to report, mainly due to the fact that I spent much of the week waist deep in water chucking a wee fly across a river, while sneezing hard enough to chase every salmon back to the sea.

I did note however, that 18000 tonnes of pumpkins are about to be thrown away in Blighty at the end of this coming week. That's a tad shameful, is it not?

And apparently the "most littered brand in the world" is Coca Cola. That too is shameful, especially given the filth that the drink itself contains.

Finally, what do you reckon about £1.5m for a bottle of Macallan? That's what somebody paid the other day at Sue the Boys. I daresay the buyer had to fork out a handsome commission on top of that price.

If it was a rich Chinese person who bought it, it will end its days in glasses topped up with that same Coca Cola. That's seemingly what they do there with fancy priced alcohol. Each to their own I guess. Doesn't bother me - I'm allergic to the products anyway. (Whisky and Coca Cola - in the former case if I drink the stuff, and in the latter case because I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole anyway.)

OK - onward to some charts between sneezes then.

First there's a look at Keller, which I featured last weekend. You can now see very clear support forming the lower line of a triangle. Next, a triangle on the Polymetal chart has resolved to the upside in classic fashion, but there could still be a place to enter a buy trade thereon. Then there's a look at 2 week bars on the S&P 500 chart, just for fun. Finally, an update on the DJIA, where I have drawn a "smaller picture" triangle than I did last weekend, just to show a couple of prices that could be of interest.

That's your lot for this weekend then folks - I'm off now for a hot drink before attempting some video updates.

The next mutterings will be on November 10th because next weekend is going to be full-on family stuff with grandchildren from south of the Border here at the end of their tattie holidays, plus one birthday to deal with.

Happy trading then, and all the best till the 10th!
Ian.

The rest of this post, which is the charts and analysis, is available to TEW course members only. Members receive the latest post, the archives, plus the manuals, video updates and one-to-one mentoring from Ian Williams via email.

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'IMPORTANT NOTICE: This information is for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. It represents only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should it be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.

 

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