The "What Ian Can See" WICS trading information newsletter - previous edition.
Ian's weekly look at the world economic situation. Members get access to the current edition, searchable archives, chart analysis and one-to-one mentoring on your trading.
Hello again from a very cold and sleety Scottish day. We're in a sea of mud because the digger driver arrived late last night and deposited his various machines for building us our new driveway to the shack, and he came back with his team at 7 o'clock this Sunday morning to make a start. Nae messin' wi' these guys! I'm highly impressed, but it does mean that this ramble will be pretty brief because they'll need my input to design the drive and decide exactly where the spoil goes, not to mention the necessary drainage. I'm certainly not complaining, because without the new access road the kitchen, bathroom etc work wouldn't go ahead due to the impossibility of getting vans anywhere near. You're perfectly entitled to call Mme W and myself nuts taking on such a project, but hey - we were never that conventional anyway! It's a lovely setting, secluded and peaceful with several mature beech and oak trees surrounding it and the nearest neighbours about half a mile away. Paradise! (Once it's finished, that is....)
Anyway, a pretty truncated ramble today, but one or two charts to look at nonetheless.
First though, what has been going on out there in the financial world? Well, these nice folk that run the EU are claiming that Blighty's "growth forecast" needs to be severely pared back, while the Yoorzone powers ever onward and upward. Given the Brexit non talks, they would say that, would they not? (They're right about the UK but severely optimistic about the EZ, in my view.)
Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium is predicting a "hard Christmas" for High Street retailers, with non food sales up a mere 0.1% in the three months to October, while car sales (mentioned in these mutterings last weekend) ain't setting the heather alight for sure.
Meantime in Donaldchumpland, he's not there - Donald that is. He's messing around in Asia somewhere and I doubt if many Yanks are missing him.
As regards the Yank economy, there seems little that's new to report, other than the fact that Amazon's share price may well have peaked at last. Otherwise, why would its boss sell $1.1bn of his stock?
Beyond that factoid, there really is nothing of consequence going on other than the world's current outrage at the contents of the so-called Paradise Papers, implicating even Lizzie Windsor in tax avoidance schemes. Listen, "avoidance" is NOT illegal, for goodness' sake! All this outrage is just so millennial and so unnecessary. Rich folk tend to employ people, run businesses, and indeed pay taxes. Take Lewis Hamilton for example. So he got £3.3m VAT refunded on his private jet purchase. So what? He employs pilots, he pays megabucks for servicing the plane and the servicing company employs mechanics and electronics specialists. The money goes around, whatever the tax position might be overall! (And had he bought the plane in the UK, he would still have got the VAT back if it was registered as a business asset.) There are other more important things for millennial fluffy Guardianistas to focus on in my view - how about child poverty, for example? (And don't tell me that if Lizzie W. and co didn't avoid some tax, child poverty would disappear!)
Anyway, onward to just a couple of amusing things and one very sad one. In the "amusing" category were the reports that sheep can recognise human faces, and that in Argyllshire, artificial intelligence is the name of the game, with lots of road signs warning of "cycles crossing". Clever machines, Argyllshire bikes! You'll have gathered that I was in that county during the week, doing a wee job on behalf of daughter. And the "sad" bit was the litter. I thought the land of Paddy was the worst, but Argyll, and Lochaber, run it a mighty close second. Just disgusting. Sometimes I'm ashamed of my nationality.
OK - how about some charts to round off this very limited ramble?
First there's a look at Amazon, seeing as I mentioned the $1.1bn share sale earlier. There was a strong push upwards on the 27th October gap, and since then it has continued to climb. But is the "climb" a rising wedge? Next, SNAP Inc is showing a wee inverted flagpole with a flag forming too. A break of $12 is likely, and a subsequent break of the August low could see considerably lower prices for this stock.
Then there's a look at a trendline on the Barratt chart - thanks to "Miles" for having observed that one!
Finally, the Dow (DJIA) where the push up from the triangle mentioned last weekend, looks to be fizzling out. There's a fairly clear place for an aggressive sell now, with an equally clear stop loss position too. The non aggressive trader of course is still warming his or her hands by sitting on them and waiting patiently to see what might happen around 22400....
That's all for this weekend then folks - my presence is required outside! Brrr..... All being well I'll manage another ramble for you next weekend but for the moment I believe I shouldn't promise too much in that regard. As always, time will tell!
All the best
The rest of this post, which is the charts and analysis, is available to TEW course members only. Members receive the latest post, the searchable archives plus the manuals, video updates and one-to-one mentoring from Ian Williams via email.
'IMPORTANT NOTICE: This information is for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. It represents only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should it be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.
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