The "What Ian Can See" WICS trading information newsletter - past edition.
Ian's weekly look at the world economic situation. Members get access to the current edition, archives, chart analysis and one-to-one mentoring on your trading.
September 15th 2019
Welcome to yet another weekend in the madhouse! 'Tis another one when Mme W and I seriously have to question our sanity in having moved back to Blighty. I believe this K2-18b place the astonomers have found, may be welcoming immigrants - can I apply, please? Honestly, you couldn't make this stuff up - if I had written a novel about UK politics and used all this Brexit nonsense as its plot, publishers would just have laughed at me, saying "Sorry old chap, but it's just too far-fetched altogether." As for these three judges in Scotland who are now saying Boris has broken the law in having temporarily shut down the talking shop, well, you can believe what you like but for me there's something fishy behind that finding...... "Fishy" - geddit? Oh well, please yourselves.
I'm pretty confident however, that the Supreme Court folk will overturn the overturning, as it were.
It's also interesting to consider whether or not Mr J still has a cunning plan up his sleeve. We'll see, but here's an interesting piece to consider, if you can be at all bothered.
Hmmm. Oh - and am I alone in thinking that Sleazy Smirking Speaker Bercow bears an uncanny resemblance to Slick Willie Clinton?
Onward then to financial matters before we all lose the will to continue!
The "big news" of course is the Prince of Darkness' parting gift to Yoorp. Unlimited QE. Wowee.
Oh, and a further reduction in interest rates to boot. Seemingly however, there's a fair old revolt brewing among Europe's central banks. Most of them ain't that happy with Mario's latest (last ever) ploy, especially not Zee Chermunz. It's pretty obvious this last gasp attempt to encourage economic growth within the EU is just that - a last gasp. It's actually quite hard to believe just how stupid Draghi and his ilk truly are. QE is a busted flush. Oh well, let's just try it again. Just because it has never worked doesn't mean it won't work this time.... Duh.
It's also interesting to note that out in the real world - or at least what passes for the real world nowadays - government bond prices are dropping, which means interest rates thereon are rising, and as I suggested in a previous ramble it doesn't take much of an interest rate rise to hit capital values hard. For example, Austria issues a 100 year bond. That in itself requires a loud "Duh!" of course, and now it's "Double Duh!" because the capital value thereof has just fallen by 20%. Another great investment, eh? Ho ho ho.
Across the Pond, the Cass Freight Index is down for the ninth month in a row and according to Bloomberg, that means recession. Bloomberg also points out that heavy truck (Class Eight) orders have fallen for ten consecutive months and dropped a massive 79% in August. Not a good time to be a truck salesperson, eh?
Overall in the USA, things are just in "same old" mode at the moment though. As with Blighty, too much attention is being diverted by politics at present, with all the so-called democrats vying with each other to get the presidential nomination. As if any of it actually matters to Joe and Jill from Podunk! What might matter more to them is that Yank 30 year mortgage rates have just risen to 3.56%.......
Back in Scotland, it seems that not only is unemployment rising, but satisfaction with services is falling, according to the Household Survey as reported in The Scotsman. In 2011, 66% of respondents thereto were "happy" with the state of Scotland's NHS, schools, and transport services. Today, that number is 51.7%.... Way to go, Nicola! Indeed, I really wish she would go. I'm sure the Antarctic Survey has vacancies in the penguin counting department. She might be able to cope with that.
OK - enough of the serious stuff!
Onward to some other bits and pieces, and first I note that Denmark plans to plant a million trees in order to save the planet. There's nothing like an ambitious project, eh? And that's nothing like an ambitious project! A whole million. Even tiny Clackmannanshire managed more than that last year....
Then I had to chuckle (well, laugh hysterically!) at this new Land Rover Defender thing. £45000 to about £80000 seemingly will be the price range. And it's using "5G software over the air technology". Oh dear. Definitely "laugh hysterically"!
Speaking of vehicles, here's a piece about the wonderful Tesla - it makes sobering reading for folk daft enough to hold shares in that disaster of a company. As the analyst rightly says, "The more cars Tesla sells, the more money it loses". His $0 price target is one I have suggested for several years, as you'll be aware if you're a reader of long standing. (If you are indeed a reader of long standing, you're a true masochist, with my grateful thanks for that!)
Then there's the Shock! Horror! revelation that Fireman Sam has been sacked by Lincolnshire Fire Brigade because he's "not inclusive enough". Oh dear. I hope he wins his case at the employment tribunal. Honestly, all this "virtue signalling". It's SO pathetic.
Next, I note that Quality Street sweetie box contents are being "downsized". Normally that kind of nonsense would annoy me, but this time the plan is "more chocs and fewer toffees" so that's fine by me.
Not fine by me however is that idiot Owen Jones who writes nonsense in the Grauniad. Now he wants private education to be banned. I'm a product of a local Scottish small town school and I have no axe to grind in favour of the private variety, but what about freedom of choice, Owen? Oh - sorry - of course you're a virtue signaller and the idea of any kind of freedom is anathema to you. What a truly silly person he is!
Then there's Paxman's rant against Defra to consider. Of course he's on the money here.
And finally, these ramblings wouldn't be complete without a "climate" mention, now would they?
Here you go then:
I just hope I can survive long enough to hear what the warmists all have to say when the next cooling phase gets into full swing!
Time for some charts then, and first today there's a look at Tesla, given my cynicism as expressed earlier. It's slowly but surely leaking away to the downside as it drops out of ongoing countertrend channels. There's no rush to jump in of course - it has a long way down to go before it hits the bottom! Next (thanks to "Dillon" for the question) there's a countertrend channel on the BT chart. Dillon was looking at an earlier falling wedge "look" but I prefer this channel overall. Another countertrend channel is next - this time on the Burberry chart. It has seen both its probe and retrace, so there's a clear enough setup per the methodology. Finally, last weekend's "possible channel" on the DJIA chart, is no more because the price has pushed above its top line for a few days. Is there a much bigger rising wedge forming? Only time will tell!
OK folks - that's all for today. Mme has asked me to dig up a few tatties for tonight's dinner, so that's my next job before the rain comes on!
All the best till next weekend then.
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