Past edition of the "What Ian Can See" WICS trading information newsletter.
Ian's weekly look at the world economic situation and his world view. Members get access to the current edition, archives, chart analysis and one-to-one mentoring on your trading.
November 17th 2019
Hello again, and welcome to yet another ramble around bits and pieces of information/misinformation that may or may not be of at least passing interest to you.
First today, I have The Solution, and I want to share it with you. I refer of course to this coming election and the attendant bribefest. The Solution? A grand coalition of all the currently rival parties. It's an excellent idea, when you think about it. No need to go out in the rain/snow/dark to vote, and the benefit of all the promises added together. Jeremy's free broadband that you can use while travelling on one of Boris' new train lines, Jo's universal income that will buy you a cup of coffee during the journey, and that lovely view from the carriage windows of all the new woodland Boris and Jo are both promising us! And no holdups caused by flooding either, because rain is to be made illegal. All will be paid for by vegetable sales from Jeremy's allotment. Utopia indeed! Duh..... Are we collectively that stupid to believe any of this political nonsense? Sadly, I rather suspect we are.
On the topic of "Who's gonna pay for all these promises?" I suggested the other week that 1% of taxpayers account for about 27% of all income tax. I was wrong - 'tis 30%.
Take note, Jeremy Stalin!
Speaking of rain, I see that these floods in Yorkshire are all the fault of Boris. Hmm - he's certainly full of p*ss and wind but surely not enough to cause such inundation? According to "officials" the flooded homes are due to "poor management and building on flood plains". I may have mentioned the odd time in these ramblings the "flood plain" aspect, which of course is at the root of the problem. As with the Aussie bush fires, flooding has happened "since time began" and frankly, it's entirely to be expected and it's the fault of nobody. The results of flooding in modern times however, are entirely the fault of people. I know that Fishlake seemingly hadn't flooded in a hundred years, but is there not a clue to be found in its name? Building on flood plains is plain stupid at best and criminal at worst, and yet.......
It's all about the money, especially that contained within brown envelopes.......
Before leaving the election nonsense, I realise I had forgotten to mention Nicola Krankie's Westminster stooge last weekend. Mr Blackford epitomises all that's bad about a certain type of Scot. He's loudmouthed, bullying, arrogant, poorly educated and he wears Poundland suits, probably bought in bulk. Yuk. And as for Jeremy Stalin's Scottish tour...... I note that he sees himself as a latter day Bay City Roller, with his pseudotartan scarf draped around his scrawny neck in a effort to impress the natives. Ho ho ho.
OK - I think that's the politics pretty much covered then, so onward to matters economic.
On that topic, I see that Clinton Cards is heading for the shredder, with 2500 jobs at risk - hardly much of a surprise really, to be honest. When the share price broke below 30p back in 2010, that marked the beginning of the end of the road for the company. I won't bother showing you the chart because there's nothing to trade, so it's pointless. You might however take a wee look at it in Sharescope, for educational purposes.
Remaining in Blighty, I see that Jaguar Land Rover is up for sale....again. Tata, the current owner, apparently is in talks with the Chinese and with BMW. That won't end well for a largish number of UK workers. I note too that China is about to acquire British Steel. That's a very, very bad idea in my view and whatever guvvermint we end up with, it should block the deal, as of course it should also do anent mobile telephony and Huawei. Oh well, what do I know?
Still with cars, I note that "Nissan's profits crash amid lower global sales" according to Reuters, and 'tis clear that all car makers are in the doldrums.
As regards UK jobs overall, I note that the ONS figures say that employment is falling at the fastest rate in four years, while the latest figures from Scotland, as quoted by the BBC, say that
"Number of Scots in work falls by 43000." Way to go, Nicola! Would that she would lose her "job"! Well, I can dream.
In Yankland, sub prime auto loans are getting in an even worser mess than ever, to use my old accountant's terminology. Consider this piece.
Still in Nellietrumpland, Bloomberg reports that the Consumer Comfort Index saw a big drop in October, while the Industrial Production Index was also well down. And yet.......
Meanwhile, "insiders" are still selling their stock like there was no tomorrow.
Overall, Moody's rating agency has just downgraded the "World Index" from "stable" to "negative". And yet.......And yet the big indices continue upwards.
In France, I note that Casino (a somewhat downmarket supermarket chain) is deeply in debt after the bankruptcy of its parent company. Now it's borrowing (or trying to borrow) €1.8bn by issuing bonds, which it hopes will be bought by the greedy and the stupid. "Greedy" because it's offering a high yield (not surprising, given they are junk) and "stupid" because they'll replace existing bondholders at the head of the queue for repayment. Who is to say that the next bond issue won't then replace this new one at the head of the queue? Duh....
OK - enough serious stuff!
Did I find anything to amuse me as the week progressed? Not really, to be honest, but I did note a certain facial similarity between this new Sonic the Hedgehog character and Saint Greta.....
And speaking of Miss Thunberg, who is meantime afloat somewhere in yet another rich person's mega costly sailing thingie, I note that according to the BBC, "Venice council flooded moments after rejecting climate crisis plan". St Greta at work there then? We should be very scared!
Finally, there was that BBC interview of Rod Stewart. He's a great entertainer of course, but is he an intellectual colossus? Here's what he had to say about Krankie's obsession:
"I'm somewhat of a traditionalist. It would be a shame to see the British Isles break up, it would be a shame to see that blue off the Union Jack. But if it's good for Scotland then I'm happy."
That surely calls for a double Duh, does it not?
Anyway, that's enough nonsense for this weekend, so onward to some charts.
First there's a look at a nice countertrend channel on the IWG picture, followed by a rounding top/double head & shoulders on the 3i chart. Next, an inverted flagpole and pennant on the Uber chart suggests even lower prices ahead. Finally, a strong upwards push for the DJIA from the triangle noted last weekend can be seen, so no surprises there. Can it go even higher still? Of course it can! However, there's no doubt that it's running on empty and once it finally runs out of fumes it will drop a very long way indeed.
That's all for this weekend then folks - I'm off now to ponder carefully about whom to vote for....or not. Here's a wee picture that might be quite appropriate, to end tonight's ramble:
On that note then, all the best till next weekend.
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'IMPORTANT NOTICE: This information is for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. It represents only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should it be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.
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