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The "What Ian Can See" WICS trading information newsletter - past edition.

Ian's weekly look at the world economic situation. Members get access to the current edition, archives, chart analysis and one-to-one mentoring on your trading.

July 7th 2019

Hello again (thank goodness!) but don't get used to it please. Last Saturday night's thunderstorm was a real doozie to say the very least, and seemingly "hundreds" of households in our general area lost their landline connections, not to mention their wifi thingies according to the Open Reach guy who arrived yesterday. ("Hundreds" means a mighty big area in these rural parts!) Unfortunately I was out during the storm and the wifi thingie remained plugged in and thus got well and truly fried. The phone line too was fried and the engineer eventually visited yesterday (Friday) to fix it. Unfortunately the frying process was bad enough to have damaged the line for a distance and since we have about half a mile of private access road they have a bit of external fixing to do for us next week.

We expect to be back in business by Thursday (11th July) so they tell me, and for now I'm sitting in Daughter Number One's home office which is about 40 miles from our shack. I hope most sincerely that next weekend's pearls of unwisdom will emanate once more from chez Williams because with the best will in the world I'm no fan of Daughter's cats, nor indeed of her music-loving neighbour......... Anyway, I have answered the backlog of emails and all being well I'll do likewise next Thursday, but I would certainly appreciate it if you can hold off sending me any until then!

So what has been happening out in the world then, while I have been incommunicado? With no telly and radio (entirely by choice, I hasten to add) I haven't been seeing nor hearing anything about anything for the whole week. And there is no mobile signal for about a mile from the house. Withdrawal symptoms? Yes, I have to admit to that, but there again I could get used to it. There's plenty to keep me busy around the land, that's for sure.

Anyway, as far as "stuff" goes, I gather there has been a change of management in Brussels, and I gather too that Messrs Johnston and Hunt continue to be at each other's throats with little regard for what really matters. I recall a film my children once watched, called Bend It Like Beckham. I think a new version might be called Bulls Hit Like Boris...... Mind you, Mr Hunt might well be a real gangster, if you care to review his business activities over the years. Whom to choose, eh? Not being a member of the Tory lot, it matters little to me! And of course in any case it matters not a jot who gets the Number Ten keys, because by definition, anyone who does, should be deported to Pluto forthwith.

Onward then, to not a great deal to be honest. All the websites I use don't tend to do much updating of anything at the weekend and having had no facility to do anything as the week progressed my researches are just a tad thin today.

I was able to note that Germany's business confidence index is the lowest in nine years and recession looms there I reckon, while Deutsche Bank has been seeing a bit of a run on the cash it holds on behalf of some big businesses - a repeat of Lehman's collapse perhaps? Very possibly. They plan to cut 50% of their jobs according to Bloomberg, while Reuters is saying that Ford Europe will be dumping 12000 staff (including some in the UK) by the end of next year. Nothing changes then!

Blighty of course is meantime consumed with Brexit, Boris, and other stuff beginning with a "B". I note that a recent CBI survey suggests that UK retail sales are on the slowish side.

In the EU as a whole, it looks like Mario the Prince of Darkness has become a bit of a loose cannon.
Demob happy, I expect.

Ho ho ho.

Across the Pond, much panic in California due to these earthquakes. Get used to them folks! It's an earthquake zone..... I expect being mostly fluffies the residents will blame Donald, and maybe a wee bit of global warming too. Duh.

The only bit of Yank financial news I spotted was Goldman's reduction of the interest being paid on its "high yield" savings account. No longer can happy savers enjoy a massive 2.25%. Now they have to make do with a measly 2.15%. Oh dear.

As far as sillier things go, how about Gucci's latest in fashionable attire? It's called a shell suit. Aaaghh. Oh, and it costs £1790. Is anyone going to be stupid enough? Almost certainly! And I liked last Friday's photo of a flash flood in Edinburgh, with a fellow sitting "stranded" on the roof of his car.....in at least six inches of water. The poor chap! What a muppet.

Then there was Nicola Krankie's recent banging on about how utterly wonderful she is, having singlehandedly created 130000 "renewable energy" jobs north of the border..... or perhaps she exaggerates just a little.

Another hearty ho ho ho is called for, methinks!

And naturally (this is IW after all!) the mention of renewable energy leads me on once more to a global warming rant, you'll be sorry to hear. First however, let me clear something up that seems to have confused one or two of you good folks. I am not saying there is no global warming going on. It's pretty clear that the planet has been warming up a little over the past few years. But the key words here are "a little". Not "a lot" as the IPCC figures would have us all believe. And most certainly not caused by human activity! That's the point I constantly try to make. We're but tiny microbes in the greater scheme of what the climate will or will not do. And despite what the scientific shills bought by the IPCC say, "climate" cannot be modelled. It's a chaotic system and as any true scientist can tell you, chaotic systems can't be modelled. The figures the shills come out with are what the politicians and big business interests want them to say.

What interests me is what they're going to say when the planet enters its next cooling phase. In the early stages thereof, governments will claim the credit for having successfully stopped and reversed global warming. How clever they will look! Ah, but what will happen when the cooling continues? (as it will do....) What will happen when the North Atlantic Drift (aka the Gulf Stream) ceases to function and Blighty gets the climate currently enjoyed by almost everywhere else at the same latitudes? (Minus 20 or lower every winter, sea ice blocking harbours six months of the year, etc etc.) Bring it on! If I'm still alive, I will laugh my head off at these IPCC idiots! I expect, having allegedly discovered vast amounts of methane on Mars, they'll be sending spaceships to bring it back and release it here in order to warm things up a little........

On that note, it's appropriate to give you this link, very kindly sent to me by "Ian L" who is as sceptical as I am about this whole global warming scam.

The Swedish professor therein is extremely highly regarded in the scientific community (I have checked) and he's a real "Patrick Moore figure" in his enthusiasm for his subject. The interview is about half an hour long and to me it's fascinating. If you only watch the last five minutes however, you'll hear what he has to say about little Miss Greta and her wee chums, although of course he doesn't mention her by name. He's bang on the money in my view, that's for sure! (On a serious note, you may recall the IW trading mantra of DYOR. Do Your Own Research. That research is why I know the stuff coming out of the mainstream warmist lot is just so much hot air! Perhaps you too could do a wee bit of similar independent thinking? I'm sure you do however!)

Finally, on the other topic that gets me slightly aerated from time to time - pollution - did you know that  cement production results in more pollution than that emitted by all the trucks in the world added together? So says a Bloomberg report. Aaaghhhh. (I haven't yet checked out the numbers to see if that's true, but I will try to do so.)

OK folks - that's all for this weekend then, so onward to some charts.

First there's a look at an inverted flagpole and ditto flag on the chart of Carnival. Next, there's a rising wedge on the Marston's chart, suggesting weakness to come. However there's also some horizontal resistance at the current top of the wedge and if that gets broken we might see £1.20 revisited. Then there's a bit of support to be seen on the Metro Bank chart. If it gets broken then much lower prices will follow, I reckon. Finally, there's a wee rising wedge on the S&P 500 picture after its having made new all-time highs as predicted. It's not fantastically attractive as a wedge but it should do the job, after a final push for 3000 or slightly higher. A break of Friday's low would be a bad sign for the bulls however.

That's your lot for today then - as mentioned earlier, my internet thingie should be up and running some time on Thursday, after which what passes for normal IW service should be resumed.

The next issue of this nonsense should be on the 14th, so happy trading till then.
Ian.

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'IMPORTANT NOTICE: This information is for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. It represents only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should it be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.

 

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