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Past edition of the "What Ian Can See" WICS trading information newsletter.

Ian's weekly look at the world economic situation and his world view. Members get access to the current edition, archives, chart analysis and one-to-one mentoring on your trading.

April 19th 2020

Hello again, and a big apology to start off with today! This ramble will be little more than once around the block I'm afraid, because I'm suffering a wee bit from a rather unpleasant pain and the Solpadeine Max that I'm taking to control it, is messing me up a bit. I'm so completely unused to taking anything for anything, but needs must for now. (Fear not, it's nothing life threatening, but it's extremely painful and uncomfortable - a "meralgia paraesthetica" aka "pressure on the lateral femoral cutaneous nerve".) One of the main symptoms is burning pain and I can vouch for that! It will pass of course, but for now it's a proper pain and sitting at the computer is proving extremely bad for it. How I acquired it, I have no idea at all - seemingly it's very rare. Oh well, 'tis not the lurgy!

Anyway, if you don't mind I'll just take things pretty easy this weekend, sticking mainly with some links to pieces that might interest you, pretty obviously all to do with the lurgy and its effects, one way or another.

Before listing these however, a couple of "no sh*t" things I need to share.

First was Blighty's boy chancellor, telling the BBC that "Covid19 will have serious implications for the economy" and the other was AP telling us that "The Fed notes what most Americans see - a sharp economic downturn". Gosh, how insightful, eh?

Then there was a good question from "Mark", a very long term subscriber to these ramblings. He was wondering if the Fed were to start buying S&P 500 stocks, would the bear market rally perhaps turn into yet another bull market? I doubt that very much, because negativity now rules within the public at large and I would remind Mark (and all of us!) that about 300 years ago there was a crazy period when everything in their bubbles, just rose and rose until they didn't. (Rise any more.) Then the crash that ensued was massive. I refer to John Law's Mississippi Scheme and to the South Sea Bubble. The former bankrupted France, the latter England. In its ending phase, Law commissioned nine printing presses to print banknotes 24 hours a day, two billion French livres in total, to try to stave off French bankruptcy once his Ponzi scheme had unravelled. That money printing failed miserably. Massive deflation and poverty ensued. Do you think this time will be different? Ya gotta be kiddin'! (If you don't already have the book, it's worth getting a hold of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay. You can read all about such schemes there, and work out what happened next.....)

And no, there won't be inflation. Prices will drop. Some folk are saying that once the lurgy lockdown has passed, people will go mad for holidays, eating out, buying stuff. Possibly, but how will the suppliers react to all the stuff they have been unable to sell during the lockdown? That's right - they will hold sales, seriously reducing prices!

And I note that many so-called "cash" funds that were "investing" in junk bonds while pretending liquidity was fine, have discovered that nobody wants to buy any from them any longer. Hence people who thought these were just a bank alternative that paid more interest, are in a spot of bother because they can't withdraw any dosh.....a problem for an awful lot of people, and one I have to say I have been warning about fairly regularly over the years.

Finally before I list the pieces that may be worth a read, I note that it appears from a Bloomberg article, that Yank bookings for cruises in 2021, are "up 40%"...... Would YOU book a cruise? Hmm.

Anyway, some pieces to ponder:

http://www.theblogmire.com/a-comparison-of-lockdown

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/04/overcapacity

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/eight-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/04/12/coronavirus-shutdown

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/16/the-lockdown-is-killing-people-too/

And a more amusing one to end with:

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/observations-anonymous-ups-driver/

Oh, and another amusing bit, this time a "wanted" ad in a lonely hearts column, sent to me by my good friend "Dave": Man with toilet rolls wants to meet lady with hand sanitiser for some good clean fun .....

Only two charts tonight then folks - thanks for your forbearance!

First is Expedia, a huge online travel company. There's a pretty clear triangle to be seen, suggesting that "down" will be the coming direction. It’s interesting to note too that it has reduced its advertising plans for this year, with the spend going down from $5bn (!!) to “only” $1bn……The other chart is of the DJIA. If you refer to last weekend's ramble, you'll note the "chunk of cheese" and today you can see how well the price has held within its confines. It could still break higher, but if it gets below the horizontal blue line I have drawn, then the next leg of the bear market will have begun.

That's all then folks - please don't hesitate to continue using the mentoring service. I'm looking at my emails a couple of times an hour - it's just that I can't spend long in any one position before the pain gets too much. I can sit for ten minutes, and likewise I can stand at the kitchen worktop, but walking around is by far the easiest on me so I'm in permanent fidget mode at the moment! Sleeping however is hard to achieve. It will get better though, that's the great thing.

OK - see you next weekend!
All the best till then.
Ian.

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'IMPORTANT NOTICE: This information is for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. It represents only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should it be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.

 

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