Return to list of trading chart analysis examples
First this week, a WARNING, courtesy
of my 'Computer Guru'. He has just finished upgrading
my anti- v*rus software after I had received a couple
of recent (failed) attacks, and he wants me to pass on
the message that everyone should understand the necessity
of running their anti v*rus programme at least once a week-
merely having one installed is not enough- it has to be regularly
updated, followed by a full scan of ALL your files. This procedure
does not just happen automatically, but has to be scheduled
by you.
He also tells me that 'free' software
is not really adequate nowadays, in his opinion.
His advice is; 1) Buy and install
a decent programme- his preference is Norton Symantec but
he is also happy with McAfee. 2) Check at least once a week
for updates and download them.
3) Run a full scan every weekend of every file in your computer.
(Mine takes about an hour- offline- and I have it scheduled
for coffee time on a Saturday- so when you get WICS, you can
be assured there is nothing hiding in it other than my ramblings.)
I am passing this on not only to help ME, believe me! If YOUR
computer has a v*rus, you are passing it on unwittingly, and
I am 100% certain you wouldn't wish to be doing so. And your
PC may be running a lot slower than it needs to- not to mention
who might be looking for your banking password. (If you are
wondering why I am not spelling correctly the relevant words,
it is because my Techie friend tells me that those of you
who use the likes of Hotmail, may have the message blocked
at the server end, as part of their own anti v*rus protection.)
If you have been trying to email
me and have had no response, it could well be because my software
has deleted your message before I could open it, almost certainly
due to something potentially damaging contained inadvertently
within it.
I pass this information on, purely
as an ignorant computer user myself.
Moving on, my second 'warning'
is just to reiterate what I have said in the WICS Archive
supplement on the website, concerning the potential 'information
overload' that is contained in my WICS charts. Your trading
experience ranges from 'total beginner, to 'fairly hard bitten
but willing to listen' and clearly I wish to do my best to
help all levels.
Therefore, I need to make a very strong point about this.
If you are a beginner, for now stick to the manual and base
your Mentoring questions on that. The rest will come to make
sense as you go through that process, but be assured, the
TTEW manual on its own, encapsulates everything you need to
trade profitably.
The WICS charts simply expand upon the basics, and are intended
to provide even deeper insight into how markets work via price
movement over time.
In my experience, 'pennies start dropping' at different stages,
for different people, and the WICS charts are always uploaded
to the website so that they can be revisited at any time.
Therefore, there is no rush to try to understand everything
all at once, and by now I am sure you know you can email me
for help when you need it.
Continuing with 'bits and pieces',
a note about 'Investment Companies' and 'Investment Trusts'
within Sharescope: often, their charts and/or Director Dealings
look interesting, but equally often when you look at the volume
it is tiny and therefore spread costs will be very wide due
to overall lack of liquidity. This can pretty much cause a
potential profit to be wiped out by the spread. There are
loads of good prospective trades within the mainstream 'Shares'
list on its own, so click on that icon rather than the 'All'
one when you are doing your research.
One final thing before I talk about
today's WICS charts: a bit of 'psychology'. it is to do with
the fact that one's brain seems to be 'wired' such that it
skews information to favour what you WANT to hear. Whatever
the topic, if you have any kind of opinion about it, you will
(and so will I) give more weight to that which reinforces
your existing view, and to a degree will deny that which favours
an opposing position. It's just the way we operate, but it
is dangerous when you are in a trade, because it means you
become 'pleased' when it is going your way, and 'disappointed'
when it does not.
I am not going to expand further for now, but I simply point
it out as a very important reason why you MUST manage trades
using some kind of fairly rigid stop loss formula, because
not to do so, eventually will wipe you out. This is not a
forgiving arena, and Mr Market cares not a jot if you end
up starving in a hovel somewhere, any more than he cares if
you become a multimillionaire.
OK- moving on to the attached charts.
'Triangle' formations (also called 'compression areas' or
'springs') often provide us with a bit of early warning of
what might happen next. They are caused by a compressing of
people's beliefs, in the sense that each up and down 'swing'
gets shorter than the preceding one, as participants try to
anticipate what is going to happen next, and pre-empt it.
For example, if a price gets to 200, say, and drops back to
100, often the next time it reapproaches 200, some traders
will say "The last time it hit 200, it fell to 100. If I sell
it at 200, it will drop again and give me a profit." (A valid
trading methodology, by the way- just not MY preference, but
I have never claimed TTEW is the ONLY way to trade.)
The price reaches, say, 185, and 'hovers'. The trader then
says "Gosh- maybe it won't reach 200 this time. I'll just
sell it now." If enough people do this (and enough 'investors'
get disappointed and also sell), the price will drop.
Then, as it drops towards the previous 100, it hesitates at
say 112 (doesn't matter why) and Joe Trader who had sold at
185, says "Hmm, maybe I won't get a 'buy back' at 100. Best
grab my profit by buying it back now." Some 'investors' also
think it won't go lower, so they decide to buy and up it goes
again.
This time, Joe Trader again 'anticipates' and this time, he
sells at say 169, and buys back at say 121.
So it goes on, and over time, the triangle forms. Fewer and
fewer people participate because more and more are beginning
to wonder just where the share price is eventually going to
go so they get out of the water and sit on the bank for a
bit, watching the ebb and flow. That's why overall volume
(usually but not always), falls away.
As the triangle (the 'spring') compresses, the more pent up interest
there is from those waiting to see what will be the outcome.
Therefore, when eventually the 'spring' decompresses and releases
its energy, there is usually a sharp move in one or other
direction.
We can benefit from this by anticipating
the move, as follows:
1) A triangle is USUALLY (note the 'usually') a continuation
pattern. In other words, it usually ends with a break in the
same direction as any prior trend. Therefore, if we have identified
an uptrend, say, in which a triangle starts to form, we can
perhaps find a valid entry at a better price than we might
otherwise wait for.
2) The entry point is conventionally just above the last significant
'touch' (there or thereabouts) of the upper line, for a 'buy'
and just below the last significant 'touch' of the lower line
for a 'sell'.
3) Usually (again note well the word!) the 'spring is sprung'
about two thirds of the way along the triangle- ie about two
thirds of the way to the apex. If when you look, the price
is still only halfway there, say, you can begin to anticipate
where you might want to place an order.
4) Despite my point in 1) above, triangles do not ALWAYS
form continuation patterns. Therefore, it can be a good idea
to place BOTH a 'buy' AND a 'sell' order once the triangle
has formed enough to let you see viable places to do so.
When one order is filled, the other automatically becomes
your stop loss order, so you must remember NOT to place another
one! You must of course also MOVE the stop loss as soon as
you can, to its normal dma management position.
What do I use triangles for within
my methodology? Essentially, I use them to try to identify
valid entry points, using a bit more anticipation than is
possible only with DMAs.
As I have touched on above, they can point me towards an earlier
entry, at a better price, than I would otherwise consider.
They are an extra 'Accessory', therefore, but one to be used
with some caution, especially until you have followed a few
for yourself, and in the greater scheme of things they are
simply an added 'tweak' to TTEW.
Finally, for those of you 'advanced'
enough to already know such things, this has been an introduction
only, and there will be more to come on triangles in due course.
And finally..finally, for today-
if I were to tell you that both the Financial Director and
the Chief Executive of a company (that back in the Spring
was the subject of potential bid activity), had in the last
couple of weeks each bought rather a lot of its shares, would
you want to have a look at the chart? I don't know if I need
to name it, because if you are using the TTEW methodology,
you should already know....Oh, all right then, it's your favourite
High Street newsagent.


