Another weekend seems to have materialised out of nowhere - I
really don't know why they appear to turn up with ever increasing
frequency! (And if you dare to suggest 'the onset of old age',
don't expect further mentoring assistance.)
Anyway, not a lot happened over the past week other than 'more
of the same' and I guess it's an opportune moment to take another
look at the FTSE100 just by way of an overview of how things might
pan out over the rest of this sweltering summer, so you'll see
its chart below, suitably annotated.
The US markets too are seeing a bit of a further push to the
upside, which just goes to prove my contention regarding 'The
News' and its effect on markets. War in the Middle East, American
housing stocks in meltdown, the dollar weakening, energy bills
soaring, bankruptcies at an all time high - yet markets are pushing
upwards nonetheless. Other than during the attention span of the
average punter (ie nanoseconds), 'The News' has NO effect whatsoever
on markets, in my view. Yet it can be immensely hard for us to
tune out 'The News' when we look at a chart. We cannot help but
think that 'Bad News' will drive prices down, and vice versa.
If that's how YOU feel, it's perfectly normal, I promise, but
it's something to work on for all that.
A very wise trader in the 1920s once remarked that "The
markets will do what the markets will do" and I think that
was an immensely perceptive statement. The media puts its own
'spin' on news anyway, and 'news' reacts to market events rather
than being their cause, to my way of thinking.
A good example of that during the week comes from a couple of
headlines: the first claims "Oil Price Rises Dampen Confidence"
and the second says "Oil Price and Dollar Plunge as US Growth
Stalls." As it happens, oil 'plunged' a whole $1.50 from
$73, and the dollar 'plunged' a huge 1% against the yen. Some
'plunge', eh? Headlines are garbage, basically.
In WICS of 18th June 2006 I mentioned Cadbury Schweppes after
the launch of its new Salmonella Special range and again perhaps
that's a good example of 'The News' meaning little as regards
price reaction.
I see that Northern Rock has broken its records for lending to
first time buyers, and is extremely bullish about property. Hmm,
I wonder if lending six times salary and up to 125% of valuation
might one day come back to haunt them? No prizes for working out
that they might soon break all records for repossession orders.
One of my (very well connected in the financial industry) Irish
contacts tells me that in the Republic, construction accounts
for 32% of the economy and that the average mortgage now exceeds
€200000. (About £140,000.) Given that salaries are
lower on average than in the UK yet loads of borrowers also seem
to have at least two newish upmarket cars in the driveway (SatNav
and phone enabled, naturally, with DVD players in the headrests)
as well as every other gadget ever invented and some you have
never even heard of, it's no surprise that already many borrowers
are handing back their keys to the bank and becoming tenants thereof
instead. (It seems the banks are quietly repossessing a whole
slew of houses but are not kicking people out for fear of creating
a property crash.) That's a scenario that will undoubtedly reach
the UK fairly shortly. Now is truly not a good time to be buying
property, of that I'm certain.
Yet up goes the FTSE!
BUT - and I believe I might possibly have suggested this more
than once already - not for a whole lot longer! I had rather expected
the 'Big Drop' to have already begun but now it appears we'll
see a bit more racking around over the summer, with many market
participants heading for the beach and little overall interest
one way or the other till their return in early September - and
I expect another upwards push as part of that 'racking around'
process. By the autumn, there's going to be a bit more direction
and loads of trading opportunities - things are always that bit
harder in 'sideways' markets for sure, but that highlights another
TTEW point, which is that if you can't see a potential trade,
then stand aside. NEVER be tempted to trade for its own sake.
If you can't see anything viable, then either you're not doing
enough research, or in fact there's not a great deal on the go
in any case. August is the 'worst' month in that respect, closely
followed of course by December - the second two weeks thereof.
And before you ask, the other ten months are 'equal best' as far
as I'm concerned!
On to charts then, and as mentioned above there's one of the
FTSE100 - the other one today is of Minerva, just to let you see
how a channel can form and the resultant (albeit not yet profitable
against the DMA) trade - the idea in showing you such formations
after the event is to try to help you identify them BEFOREHAND
of course!
Anyway, to summarise this weekend's comments (which I know you
won't be able to read till Monday evening of course) I can see
a further push upwards in the main markets over the coming few
weeks, very possibly to challenge the highs of earlier this year,
before things roll over and start to fall back as predicted.
Finally, can I just remind you that currently I'm on a 'steam
- powered' dialup connection, so please be kind enough not to
send me attachments - I don't ever need them anyway because I
can find the relevant charts myself if you simply tell me what
you're looking at, and why.
OK - time for a very cool shower and a nice cold drink of something
distinctly non alcoholic before I melt. See you next weekend.
All the best until then,
Ian.

