The wheel turns.....and everything from the past comes around again. As it always does, of course.

Asda opening an estate agency eh? Now that has to be a sure sign of an imminent property collapse. Remember the last time that companies with nae experience got involved in the house selling game? The banks and insurance companies that paid hundreds of millions to buy out some of the independents? I seem to recall that was an unmitigated disaster, or is my memory failing?
And of course we have BT paying a massive amount for an online retailer of utter tat - BT of course calls Dabs.com a 'dotcom success story' and indeed so it has been, but fear not, BT 'management' will soon put an end to that. Remember Marconi?
Still in ever so slightly cynical mode, I note that mortgage debt will shortly surpass £1 trillion, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Apparently however (says the CML) that is nothing about which to be concerned, because "The sum is vastly exceeded by the amount of equity in property."
Ah, that's OK then - surely Tony must have passed a law while I was away, making illegal the requirement that lenders actually be repaid. That would certainly suit his current wee 'peerages' embarrassment right enough.
I realise I'm somewhat out of touch with such matters, but I always thought a mortgage depended on TWO things, not simply 'equity' (ie 'security'.) I always thought the OTHER aspect of mortgage lending was 'the ability of the borrower to repay.' £1 trillion of debt, eh...and even the Pru is outsourcing jobs to India now....is that DFS £3000 leather suite, reduced (This weekend only, so hurry!!) to a mere £1500 at a miserly 28.8% APR, such a good idea after all?
Moving along, there's a real (pretty much unremarked - upon) sign of weakness in the economy with Customs and Excise reporting a substantial fall in VAT receipts - the first since that iniquitous tax began in 1973. I know they're blaming so - called 'carousel fraud' for the drop but I suspect a whole lot of the reason is a slowing of economic activity, especially in the retail sector. We'll see, but if you DON'T buy that nice leather suite, then you too will be contributing to the reduced tax take. Don't feel too bad about being unpatriotic though, because as VAT receipts fall, Gordon will find a way to make up for the hole in his wallet and he'll stitch you up anyway.

Oh - while I remember - anent last weekend's wee rant about Standard Life etc, I note that according to Messrs Grant Thornton (major accountancy practice/financial consultancy), 76% of adverts for financial products are "misleading - some of them wildly so." What a surprise. Only 76%? Gosh, the industry must be really cleaning up its act then.

As far as the markets go, another pretty much 'nothing' week in the run up to yet another so - called Bank Holiday, but very definite signs of weakness, especially across the pond - the Dow has been making new highs of a minimal nature, but on ever - decreasing breadth and it's teetering on the brink now.

It seems too that with petrol now costing a massive £1.70 a gallon, the poor US consumer is really hurting. That doesn't bode well for the American economy overall because most people are just so car - dependent, and up till recently their monthly 'gas' budget has been minimal as a percentage of their salaries. Given that they are massively over - borrowed and have seen mortgage costs rise quite a bit recently, they have very little leeway, if any at all - and that has to mean cutbacks in their other spending. No half price leather suites for them, probably.

Three charts today - annotated below.

That's the lot for this weekend, so enjoy the long weekend - I hope the sun will shine for you as you wash your face in the morning dew at daybreak on Monday.

Ian.

PS: don't forget that there will be no WICS next weekend (and no video updates either, for those of you with the CD ROMs).

I'll be leaving around noon on 5th May and returning some time on the 14th, so all being well, I'll do a WICS and a couple of video updates that afternoon (14th May). It would be good if you can hold back mentoring emails from 5th May till Monday 15th.

PPS: Hotmail appears to be going through one of its regular 'turryvees' (I love that word - one of my late Mother's and so expressive!) and I have had several bouncebacks of mentoring replies during the last week - some of these sent by me nearly three weeks ago! I won't answer the same email twice, so maybe it would be a good idea to get a more reliable address if this has been affecting you. (Have a look on the 'info' section of my website, where my webmaster has written some helpful stuff about POP3 setups.)

IW

Webmaster note: Google's mail service (web based) seems OK and I can send you an invite to join if you email me at colin@cjonesdesign.co.uk

 

.'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.