Well, there you go then - everyone was getting all hot and bothered about the Dubai debt default debacle (as a regular sufferer of these ramblings, you may have noticed a certain IW enjoyment of alliteration - Borders Bookshops Bust?.....) but there was no need, because the Broon one has proclaimed that there is nothing to worry about. So that's all right then........or is it? What the heck would Bampot Broon know about the murky dealings and non existent financial probity of a failing Middle Eastern state? Answers on a postcard please. And IF Abu Dhabi decides to "help" via some kind of bailout (still moot), the price thereof will probably involve a complete takeover of just about everything, along with a big default nonetheless, via some kind of dodgy "ring fencing" of what might be due to foreigners. Look out, British taxpayers! More bailouts ahead for your favourite bunch of crooks at RBS? That's something you can bet on! The "headline" debt figure for this particular iceberg (of around $60bn) is probably hiding an awful lot more than that under its waterline. Somebody wondered during the week if this mess might represent the "first domino to fall" in the next phase of economic meltdown - probably that is the case, and you'll be aware from earlier IW ramblings, that commercial property in general is about to take even more of a hiding worldwide (try "commercial property" in the search engine.) As for the "next domino" - how about Greece?

Anyway, onward - but still with banks - it was amusing to read all the fudge surrounding the UK's "Walker Review" of banking practices with its suggestions about how to "make them better". Seemingly the Walker one thinks it could be quite a good idea if banks declare how many of their staff earn over £1m a year. So little? He was asked the very reasonable question "Why £1m?", to which he gave the equally reasonable response "It's a good number." A well thought out and hard hitting report then.....and another couple of doozies from it were "Bank chairmen should be trained in how derivatives work" and "shareholders should be more demanding." Ho ho ho.

Oh - before moving right along - what about these "emergency secret loans" that were made last autumn to RBS and HBoS? One journalist during the week suggested that it was just as well the UK government aka taxpayers had made the loans, but "More importantly, the Bank of England's (recent) decision to admit the extent of its support, now illustrates that confidence has returned." Duh.

OK - no more about banks today then - but back to Dubai for a moment, where more than a few "celebrities" are probably hurting a little as they see their (unbelievably ill advised) "property investments" crumble in value, if not also structurally in due course - what with rising sea levels and all. "Financial advisers" to the stars of screen, stage and sport were right for once in fact, when they were "advising" (ie selling stuff to get some tasty commission) such people to "invest" in Dubai as a "great tax offsetting idea." OF COURSE - and why didn't I realise this earlier, before starting to badmouth financial advisers? - it IS a great tax offsetting scheme. All it needs to do is continue to lose more and more value and there you go - nae tax to pay! It's a bit like the vineyard situation in Oz when you think about it - another great tax dodge that was touted by the parasi....sorry - advisers - there are only about 40000 hectares of vines too many now, and a massive wine lake to deal with.....and here was IW, thinking that the Aussies could handle an extra drinkie or two.....

Moving right along - and back to Blighty - it seems you can now send a text message to some interweb type setup and get an instant loan. The APR is apparently a modest 994%......and continuing with "very weird things", how is it that the BT pension fund deficit has more than doubled since March (from around £4bn to £9.4bn) while stock markets have had their great big rally? Could it be that the "£4bn" figure was somehow "accidentally underestimated" at the time? Surely not.

That's about all for this weekend then, but before looking at a chart or two, here's an interesting email from "Christian" and my rather inadequate response thereto. It's pretty difficult to help with such things to be honest - there is no "quick fix". I realise that many people take the "paper trading" route in order to remove at least some of the emotion from the environment, but that only defers the matter, because once real money comes into play (no matter how little it might be) your feelings about and attitudes to trading, change. How you cope can only be determined once you are trading with real money - and "being dispassionate" is probably the hardest thing to achieve within this most unforgiving of arenas. But you NEED to achieve it! Just don't be too hard on yourself if you find it difficult - I too went through plenty of the "sweaty palm scenario" in the early years.......

Anyway, here's Christian's email:

"Hi Ian,
(1) How does a trader become part of the audience when he is either buying or selling? How can he possibly detach himself from what is going on when he is seeking or waiting for the opportune moment to either buy or sell (or do nothing)?

(2) If 'a market mirrors precisely the sum total of the activities of all its participants at any given time' and if most traders are in competition
with one another, how then did you say one shouldn't have a competitive attitude? How does one develop the attitude of just keeping an eye on 'what the market is telling me'?
Thanks.
Christian"

My reply was:

"Christian - your questions above are linked as you know - and the "how to do it" can be hard indeed, but the unemotional & uninvolved mindset is essential to cultivate. It's like any other kind of acquired behaviour - it takes time and effort to make it second nature, but patience will be rewarded.
Ian."

On to some charts then - all updates of "watch list" ones this weekend - and first tonight we'll have another look at FedEx in the USA. Several of you seem to be following this one, especially those of you based in the Southern Hemisphere. Have a look at video clip 2864 for a bit more on this one - more recently we can see that it has still not yet penetrated its uptrend, so a probe thereof and a retrace would be needed before a "sell" might be viable per the methodology - but on the other hand, there is now some nice horizontal support just above $80. Might a break below the "$80 round number" provide a bit of an "aggressive" selling opportunity, using say half the usual commitment? That's for you to decide of course! Then we'll update the chart of Associated British Foods from WICS of November 1st - £8 is now the magical number here - ie "800 points". The action includes both horizontal support and a trendline probe followed by a retrace - the latter isn't as "decisive" as I prefer to see, but for all that, the whole thing looks pretty weak overall. Finally, Kier Group (WICS of October 25th this year) has now completed its "first step down" through the various lines of horizontal support and has bounced rather nicely off "line 2" that was drawn on 25th October - reinforcing that support.

That's all for this weekend then - there will be nothing produced next weekend because that's when the somewhat circuitous trip back to the winter quarters will be undertaken. (And to those of you who keep on about "all these IW holidays" - how long do you ever have to wait to receive a reply to any of your emails?? We live in three locations depending on the time of year, and we travel between these by car - and rarely does an email go unheeded for more than a couple of days or so!) Gosh - doesn't that sound terribly defensive, eh? But seriously, I promise you "at least 40 weeks' worth a year" and I suspect you receive more than that irrespective of the IW peripatetic lifestyle. I enjoy receiving your emails and I truly love trying to assist people become successful in this fantastically liberating world of trading, but there are some comments that really do cause the odd undesirable word to float through the house if the office door is open.......Anyway, I'll be offline between early Friday morning 4th December (UK time) and some time around 10:00hrs on Monday morning 7th December (Central European time), so it would be much appreciated if you can "hold" any emails between these dates. OK - there's time for a couple of hours on the river bank before dark, so all the best till next time - gotta rush!

Ian

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.