Well, I hope the good folks that attended the Leamington Spa workshop last weekend enjoyed the day as much as IW did - a lovely bunch of people who simply reinforced my belief in the good taste and common sense of TTEW subscribers!

Back down to earth in a very pleasant Cornish holiday cottage and a wee rant about fishing permits - you need a permit from the so - called Environment Agency NOT to be able to cast a line in England and Wales without then buying another permit.......even if you want to catch a goldfish in your garden pond, a government licence is needed! Then of course if you actually want to fish anywhere else, you need to buy the relevant permit for the water in question. Seemingly the EA funds are 'ring fenced' for the 'good of anglers' - that will be why Cornwall has ONE bailiff for the entire county then? What a total scam. I still struggle to get my head around the way people just seem to shrug their shoulders and say "Oh well, what can you do?" How about bend the ear of your MP till he or she is sick of hearing from you? If everyone did that, lots of things you currently put up with might change for the better!

Anyway, enough, Williams - you might get accused of fomenting revolution, and that would never do! Moving on to matters of more immediate TTEW interest, we see that according to the OECD, the Brits are the most indebted people in the world, on a per capita basis. £1.4 TRILLION - doesn't sound a lot when you see it written like that, but try putting in all the relevant zeros when you have a moment to spare.......164% of everyone's annual disposable income. Wow. But according to much of the financial press, the worst of the credit crunch is over and it's buying time again. In the words of the old pub standard, that will certainly lead to "crying time again" for those silly enough to believe that garbage.

The Society of Business Economists (whatever that might be) is suggesting that the housing market will "hit rock bottom in 2009". Hmm, that rather depends on what is meant by "rock bottom." From the Williams viewpoint, it looks more likely to bottom out in the UK around 2012, and it will take 20 or more years after that to get back to where it is right now - and then only with no inflation adjustment. We'll see. Gloomy? Not at all. There will be some great property buys to be had in three or four years time - and property - related stocks of course too.. And as mentioned so often here, if you have a manageable debt level and you like living in your current house, what does it matter what it might be 'worth'? You need to live somewhere. But if you have big debts and a shaky job situation then that of course is a different matter.

Bad news re wine prices in the UK - according to Majestic Wines, they will go up about 10% this year. Oh dear. But maybe the gas and electricity price rises will affect more people?

Moving on to the question of slamming shut the doors of totally empty stables, the CBI head honcho proclaims that "the slowest growth in 17 years is not a forecast for recession." And the Illinois attorney general is suing Countrywide (Once the biggest sub prime lender in the USA - about to go bust any day now) for "unethical business practices" related to providing loans to people with no hope of repaying them. Just a tad behind the curve there - type 'NINJA' into the WICS search engine for some background if you have a bit of time on your hands. But about to go down the pan or not, the Countrywide chief exec, one Angelo Mozilo, scooped $132m last year in pay and bonuses. Maybe his first name is a tad inappropriate? It will come as no surprise if he spends a year or two somewhere he won't enjoy, once the authorities are finished with him. And another rather tardy action is the downgrading by the ratings agencies of the monoline insurers (at long, long last!) from AAA grade. (Type 'monoline' into the search engine for more about these companies.) The effects of the downgrade will be a sight to behold - and on top of that, a whole lot of hedge funds have investors banging on their doors wanting their money back. The next "redemption day" is tomorrow, June 30th, and there may well be a whole lot of selling going on as hedge funds scramble to raise enough liquid dosh to pay people back. This whole show is just beginning folks - grab a ringside seat! And if you think that the banks (currently being touted as "great buying opportunities") are going to recover any time soon, well, you can believe anything you want. When this ramble has been uploaded, I'm off to visit the herd of Cornish -speaking unicorns that lives on Bodmin Moor....

Moving along, it appears Gordon's lot (the Labour Party, I think they call themselves) are a bit strapped for cash - according to one report, the party "faces financial collapse." So there IS justice in the world then - although it probably won't stop them voting in a nice wee pay rise.

I note that Barclays has managed to blag £4.5bn from the government of Qatar. They (Barclays) have so far not done an awful lot of bad debt writedowns so you might think they're in reasonable shape. However, their chief exec says "We're going to outperform..." Does that possibly mean they will 'outperform' by getting lower, quicker, than the rest of the sector? And maybe the zillions of small investors in Bradford & Bingley will yet derail the proposed rights issue there - that could be interesting!

Oh yes, coming back to gas bills - seemingly the proposed price hikes are to pay for 'energy conservation projects'. The Industry Secretary says "The increases will be modest." 37% is modest? Next they'll be telling you their own pay rise will be modest! It's quite an edifying experience being in the UK for a couple of weeks.

And going back to the question of property prices for a moment, it was interesting to see that figures from Barclays suggest that at the start of the 'final inflation phase' of the house price bubble (in 2003) £57bn was borrowed by the Brits to buy overseas property - a sure sign that second homes in various parts of the world are going to be flooding the market for a fair time to come as people desperately try to get rid of them to pay down debt at home. More bargains in due course then, for the patient among us.

It's not all 'downwards' of course - if you lose your job in the construction industry (say), you should be able to pick up a nice little earner by training to repossess cars, motorbikes, and boats - that is very much a booming sector these days. Or of course you could get a position in local government as a cctv camera installer.....or as a wheelie bin monitoring device operative....aaaggh. But better still, learn to trade! And not all opportunities will be sells either - as you can hopefully see from the charts featured in WICS and the videos over time.

Scams appear to have been thin on the ground, but only because I haven't had the time to seek them out - doubtless there are more than enough on the go to fill several volumes. The one that did catch my eye was the alleged Fabergé egg "worth £10m" that turned out to be a fake, bought from Sothebys in Geneva in 1991 and lent to a museum for many years. It got damaged and it was then that the 'fake' aspect came to light - but Sothebys seemingly pointed out their own reservations before the guy shelled out for it. Being of a slightly suspicious and cynical nature (not that it shows of course) IW has an opinion about that - but will keep it to himself of course.

Anyway, that's that for this weekend - I'll be travelling from early Tuesday till the afternoon of Thursday so it would be good if you can hold emails till then - thanks.

Charts today are of horizontal support on Carpetright, a wee look at Nighthawk where a triangle is 'no more' and then an update on the Dow Jones.

OK - time to go and see these unicorns then - and doubtless a piskie or two as well.....

All the best till next weekend

Ian.

 

 

 

 

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.