Hello again - and as usual when a weekend's WICS is missed, "things" happen in the markets - but the video updates have pretty much kept up with the expected bear market rally's early stages, and this weekend's mutterings are more in the form of "snippets" than a joined - up essay. (Not that IW is really capable of managing a coherent essay in the first place of course....) It's good to be writing these ramblings again though - the "missed weekend" was tremendous fun (two year old grandson was visiting for the first time and he brought his Ma and Pa with him for company) but a bit of peace and quiet sitting here in the office, is also appreciated!

Anyway, in no particular order, it was interesting to see that Mr Salmond HAS in fact worked out how to pay for the new Forth Bridge that's meantime on the drawing board. (Refer to WICS of 8th March this year.) The plan is to increase booze duty. The pretext of course is to "tackle binge drinking" but that obviously is total nonsense - even the English government realises that to be the case and has no plans to follow Scotland along that particularly stupid path. It's just so sad to me as a Scot, to watch the country sink into a twilight zone of nannying socialism - "enterprise" and "dynamism" are words alien to the Edinburgh parliament - not to mention "personal responsibility". And of course the Dunfermline Building Society has just gone bust with no hope of rescue. But you can probably add another job category to the "vacancies" list we have been looking at (you remember - whistleblowers, spies, camera installers, bailiffs etc etc) - how about "smugglers"? With English booze possibly going to be a whole lot less costly than that bought in Scotland, a souped up white van or two might soon be taking a path northwards.... The English "work and pensions" secretary (surely a diminishing responsibility these days?) suggested - anent NOT introducing the same legislation south of the border - "We don't want to punish the majority for the sins of the minority..." That will be why a smallish number of bankers have been let off the hook, at massive expense to everyone else then? Or why the UK has 85% of all the surveillance cameras that exist in the entire expanded EU? Of course the real reason for not increasing the price of English booze couldn't possibly be "the next election", could it?

Still with politicians - my "equal least favourite people" - it was amusing to hear the Broon one suggest that Britain has a lower jobless percentage figure than those of France and Germany. Gordy, if you counted 'em properly, you might find that is not the case. And he also suggested that it was necessary to "remove all risk taking" from the financial world. Oh dear. In the words of the great John Surtees (the only man ever to have won motor racing world championships on both two and four wheels), "Calculated risks in pursuit of ambition are not only necessary, but desirable." Absolutely.

The US Fed chairman (Bernanke) suggested last week that "The recession will end this year if policymakers succeed in repairing the banking sector." Ho ho ho - that was a good one, Benny! If that's what it's going to take, expect unending recession because policymakers couldn't repair a punctured pushbike tyre.

Then there was the story about the Turks & Caicos Islands' parliament (a UK dependency) - it's about to be taken over by Broon's lot and run from London, due to "evidence of systematic corruption and political amorality." My goodness - amoral politicians - whatever next? Surely Broon & co are dissatisfied with the Turks & Caicos lot's lack of ability and are going to show them how to become REALLY corrupt and amoral?

In the markets, BNP Paribas obviously employs some real star analysts. According to one of them, "Rises in debt default rates correlate closely with increasing unemployment." You would never have been able to work that one out by yourself!

And there's the "win/win/win" situation described by a Yank analyst when making approving noises about the US treasury secretary's latest $1trn "rescue plan". The FDIC (try the WICS search engine and/or Google for more) is to guarantee the 7% or so of private cash that buys into toxic "assets" and the US treasury will buy the other 93%. So maybe it's more like "win" (US government looks like it's being useful for a few days), "win" (banks offload even more of their rubbish), "lose" (US taxpayers, who yet again end up with the bill when it all falls apart just like the rest of these idiotic notions.)

Speaking of "rubbish", Lloyds Bank in the UK has now moved ALL its (acquired from the HBoS disaster) "buy to let" loans into the "toxic waste insurance scheme" that's being paid for by the British taxpayer. That includes those loans that are not (yet) in default. What does that tell you about the "buy to let" sector? Or about the way HBoS was mismanaged?

Legal & General (major UK insurance co with a fair old exposure to insuring corporate debt) has just lost £1.5bn and is predicting a "surge in bankruptcies" that will render a lot of corporate debt worthless. How true - yet many "financial advisers" are trying to persuade Joe and Jill Public to buy corporate bonds - aaaghh....L&G is also suggesting that the recent "quantitative easing" (try that exact phrase in the search engine) will "reduce gilt yields and cause problems for pension funds". To misquote a famous Scottish TV booze advert from several years ago - "quite the reverse" will be the case. Gilts will FALL in price and thus yields will RISE. There was a bit of an explanation in a recent WICS in fact. Certainly there's a lot of scaremongering going on at present about falling annuity rates - which lead to reduced pensions for those currently about to retire - but give it all a few more months and the story will be a different one.

Speaking of gilts, it seems Merv the Banker is looking ahead to a change of government and the inevitable peerage for having stood up to the Broon one. He has suggested that the cupboard is bare and that there should be no more giveaways/bailouts announced in the next UK budget. That will give Broon a lot of clout at the coming G20 junket then.

Finally, the UK's Audit Commission is pointing the finger at some local authorities and suggesting that they were "negligent" in having deposited so much dosh in Icelandic banks....hmm, pots and kettles come to mind. The Audit Commission itself has £10m sitting in the same chilly place. The local government minister gives cold comfort when suggesting "This money isn't lost, but it is at risk..." Oh yes. The local government association says it expects its members will get back "the lion's share." Perhaps - but not all will be recovered, and a toothless lion doesn't eat that well.....Anyway, on that note, on to a chart or two, and tonight we'll look first at Lancashire Holdings - it was in video clip 2182 the other week in fact. Is there now a bit of a "head & shoulders" forming? Next there's an update of Homeserve from video clip 2144 - it's hitting the channel top now and indeed has probed the tiniest bit into the earlier gap. Finally we'll take a look at the Dow Jones (DJIA) index to see if it's shaping up for a nice buy trade above resistance.

And that's your lot for now - all the best until next weekend as usual.

Ian.

PS - it seems the Salmond one is having cold feet about the booze price hike thing - the new bridge may have to wait a bit longer perhaps.

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.