It's still the silly season then - I see the latest big deal
being publicised by the UK media now that the Middle East is just
so yesterday is that junk food advertising should be banned, and
not only after what is laughingly termed the 'watershed' - my
my, where did personal responsibility for one's actions go, then?
Presumably the same way as the UK's school playing fields have
done over the years. How hard can it be NOT to eat that extra
burger?
"What has that remark got to do with trading?" - I
hear you enquire. And of course, as far as successful trading
goes, my reply is "Everything!" Those of you who have
suffered me for a fair while now (thanks, guys and gals - I appreciate
your tolerance) will know precisely why I say that, and if you're
a newcomer to my eccentricities, then a wee bit of thought doubtless
will provide the answer.
Anyway, moving along, I note the current controversy surrounding
the affairs of iSOFT - it might be worthwhile typing that name
into the wee search engine at the top of the WICS archive page
to read what I said about it earlier this year. It fascinates
me now to read that iSOFT's bankers seem willing to extend its
loan facilities nonetheless. Doubtless of course no peerages will
result in the fullness of time for having bailed out one of Tony's
pet projects. Perish the thought.
And I see that the ongoing inflation mentioned here over the
past week or so, has now infiltrated the realms of education,
with a 20% increase in top A Level grades having been reported.
I suppose however that that effect might be counterbalanced by
the deflationary effect of the 80% dumbing down of the exams?
Moving on to the state of the markets, whither now? Easy enough
to predict I reckon (Hah!) - another halfhearted stab or two at
the upside by the major European indices (the FTSE100, DAX, CAC40
etc) and then the beginning of a long downhill slide into the
winter. As far as the USA markets go, their 'stab or two at the
upside' might prove to have some power behind them in a final
flurry of activity as we move into September, but overall the
'long downhill slide' is imminent there too.
As regards individual stocks of course, you know I've suggested
often enough that we need to take each chart on its own merits
- if markets overall are bearish, that doesn't imply an individual
stock will drop in price - there are enough variables around to
ensure we must examine each chart with as detached a view as possible.
Companies can receive takeover offers, for example, and even in
a major downturn within a particular sector we can still see a
specific stock move sharply upwards. In the same way, a sector
might be pushing strongly upwards in a bull market yet a particular
stock within that sector might be showing all the signs of an
imminent drop - and the REASONS don't matter because we won't
know the reasons till AFTER the event! The entire purpose of chart
analysis is to try to see such events BEFORE they happen so that
we can profit from them.
It's also the case that even in a major downturn, certain market
sectors can move counter to the overall trend - I've mentioned
before the so - called 'Defensive' stocks like utilities and tobacco
- these generally tend to do well to the upside when investors
turn to them in the 'bad times'. So if you prefer to trade to
the upside there will doubtless still be plenty of opportunities
even during the long bear period to come - although the answer
as to why you would prefer buying to selling resides firmly in
the psyche and has no relevance to the dispassionate trader.
On to today's charts then - I'm in a rush - got to visit ASDA's
website to see if I can buy a cheap house before it's too late
- today I'll put up a couple of so - called 'triangles' just to
see if they'll help you identify such formations, or not. (A couple
of you during the last week seem to be having 'issues' with triangles
- yes, they can sometimes be a bit subjective, and don't be offended
if my reply to questions about them is "Practice may not
make you perfect but it will surely help!"
We'll also update the Carpetright chart because it's looking
interesting at the moment, and look at Brambles Industries because
its pattern seems to have altered a little and it's always worth
digging a bit deeper in such cases. ('Digging deeper' by the way,
might involve examining Director Dealings, and also visiting the
FT website as explained in the archive FAQ section just to see
if there are any 'stories' on the go - if there's a bid floating
around then a price might go up quite a lot, but if it's only
an 'upbeat trading statement' then you need to remind yourself
about Maurice Marketmaker and Ivor Big - Appetite. And if you
can't recall who these two disreputable characters are, then you
seriously need to revisit the TTEW manual!)
Anyway, that's your lot for this weekend - I believe it's a Bank
Holiday in some parts of the UK so if that's where you are located,
I hope the sun shines for you, and I wish you all the best till
next weekend. As far as I'm concerned, August is a month I truly
dislike, so roll on autumn! (In fact, roll on winter because I've
done enough fishing for this year and ski-ing withdrawal symptoms
are beginning to affect me again.........)
See you next weekend if they'll let me out long enough to write
to you.
Ian.




