Well, here we are nearly at the end of July already, and the SEF is still fluttering around doing its poor wee best to keep markets afloat. (If you're new to these mutterings, type 'SEF' into the WICS search engine - indeed, type in just about any of the more obscure Williams references, because it still amazes me how well the search thingie seems to work.) In the USA, a bill to "save" the housing market has just been passed, to prop up Fannie Mae and her sickly husband, Freddie Mac, while in the UK, Gordon Brown's current political embarrassments will almost certainly see the Bank of England being forced by him to change its rules pretty soon and permit a few interest rate cuts after all....Gordon - I realise you never were the slightest use as a chancellor despite all the narcissism at the time, but surely even you can see that 2% interest rates across the pond are making not a jot of difference to the overall mess? (Try 'interest rates' in the search engine.)

Anyway, today methinks the 'rants and the scams' need to be dealt with before anything else, because IW is just a whisker on the annoyed side at the moment. 'Grumpy' doesn't begin to describe things and even a few swearie words have been contemplated. Mrs W. has taken the dog for a long walk......

Where to start? Well, one of the things that has got the snarly part of the W. persona well and truly up and running this otherwise sunny mountain morning, is the realisation that if you add up Standard Life (slightly dated, I know), HBOS, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Gordon Brown, you arrive at the inevitable conclusion that the Scots reputation for knowing the value of a shilling, just ain't what it used to be. Where did the sensible, canny Scot disappear to? Och laddies and lassies - it maks me want tae reach furr ma claymore.....or maybe just uncork the Talisker bottle? But seriously, companies like HBOS and RBS have got themselves into a sorry mess indeed and the 'getting out' thereof is going to prove more than a little costly both to jobs and to shareholder value. HBOS was trading at over £11.50 around 18 months ago and just look at it now. It will likely end up either being broken up or as another (tarnished) trophy for some Middle Eastern or Chinese sovereign fund. And Gordon of course is destined for the political scrapheap - couldn't happen to a more deserving candidate. Just please don't think all Scots are the same!

OK, that's the racist bit out of the way, so what's the next thing that has got the bad humour going today? Ah - nearly forgot - another 'Scotland' thing in fact - it appears that Europe's biggest windfarm is to be built along the M74 motorway in the Scottish Borders. According to the current SNP head person, the project will "power 320000 homes in the most environmentally friendly manner." According to the builders thereof, it will "power UP TO (my capitals) 250000 homes blah blah..." Can Alex Salmond nae count? Oh - of course he can't - he's a politician. In any event, it's all such a scam it makes the Williams blood boil. ALL onshore windfarms are a scam - and probably offshore ones too - it's just that the latter are less of a blight on the landscape. Just in case you don't know the Borders (shame on you!) let me give you a wee bit of geography - the M74 between Moffat and Abington, where the wind farm is seemingly to be sited, gets on to a highish, windswept and more than a tad exposed plateau. In winter - as you can imagine - it's even more of a tad exposed and often gets blocked by snowdrifts. Maybe it gets windy up there then? What happens to wind generators when it's windy? Ah - they generate power. What's IW getting at here? Simply that once it gets TOO windy (and that's "not a lot of windspeed" for these machines in fact) they are shut down. Will that mean they WILL generate masses of clean power? Hmmm....oh yes, and they are to be located ALONGSIDE the motorway. Now if you have ever driven past such monstrosities, would you agree they tend to catch the eye a bit? - "Oh look Daddy - that one's not turning...." Is this an insane project or what?

And still on the subject of 'clean power' I note that the Surrey police have acquired some kind of electric buggy and pimped it up to look like a patrol car. It races silently to crime scenes at up to 28 mph and better still, it's 'non polluting' according to a spokesperson. The batteries take seven hours to recharge. How are they recharged? Wouldn't be from a power socket perchance? Probably - although maybe there they have a whole lot of dynamo - equipped exercise bikes to do the job and keep the cops fit at the same time? The point being that (too) many UK power stations run on that ultra clean fuel known as coal, and that fact somewhat diminishes the 'pollution free' statement. Oh yes - the other point about this whole rant is that the caring UK government proclaimed a while back that all new coal fired power stations would have to install fancy equipment to 'capture' carbon emissions - but all of a sudden it seems that the three new ones that are currently being planned, won't need to bother. And these are the same people who rail at third world countries for "not doing enough to reduce pollution...." Oh dear. And as for Beijing and its banning of 50% of the 3.3m cars that enter the city each day, to cut down on emissions - will that rule last once the Olympic thing is behind them? Aagghh.

Anyway, onward to an interesting excuse - it seems UK beer sales are well down since this time last year, and the industry is (of course) blaming the smoking ban. So smokers only drink premium strength stuff then? None of that wimpish 4% tapwater for us smokers eh! We only quaff 19.5% Bear Sweat.....my point being that sales of premium (ie expensive) beer are down an awful lot more than are sales of more 'ordinary' stuff. Is that due to the smoking ban, or to the fact that some beer is just way too expensive for people who are getting a bit strapped for cash anyway?

"Strapped for cash" is certainly something that will apply more and more as recession really starts to bite - I mentioned bikes above and it seems Halfords is selling an awful lot more of them than it did last year, doubtless due to a bit of a knee - jerk (literally??) reaction to the cost of petrol - and it seems a certain politician is in the market for a new one too...shame they're almost all imported these days.

The UK government is certainly more than slightly strapped for cash, and here's wee Allie practising his mountaineering skills yet again (as in climbing downwards) with his U - turn on taxing British companies on overseas earnings - that won't boost the coffers either. And in another U - turn (or scam perhaps?) the FSA is yet again letting banks off the hook as regards compensating customers for "unfair charges" - estimated at around £2.5bn a year, by the way! Mervyn King at the BOE is suggesting banks should be made to pay billions into a "disaster fund" to help compensate depositors when the next failure comes along. Merv - it's a good idea, but the problem is that it's the banks themselves that need a disaster fund at the moment!

Anyway, there's loads more but it's getting time to soothe the weary throat with a "wee something", after all the snarling I've done these past few hours, so onwards to a chart or two - but first, a headline that caught the Williams eye during the week - a seventy year old man in Sweden was having lunch and realised he had no change with which to tip the (seemingly rather gorgeous nineteen year old) waitress, so he gave her.......his Porsche. Allegedly there was absolutely no hidden agenda, but cynical old IW believes that to be incorrect.....the Porsche in question was a model 924, and those of you who are petrolheads like myself, will realise that it was therefore more of a skip than a tip. Not a bad way to get it out of the driveway then.

Oh yes, and before looking at a chart or two, I promised in tonight's video of Aquarius Platinum that I would reproduce the relevant email here, so here it is:

From: Elizabeth

To: Ian Williams

Hello Ian
Could I run Aquarius Platinum by you please?
I’ve been watching this for a while . At the beginning of july I spotted a trend change , also a rsing wedge and a ( bit dodgy) triangle. Anyway when it probed out of the old trend line and did a retrace ( a bit weak) and then a sell below the probe at 680 which I dropped to 673 per the chart because of resistance there. Unfortunately in the end I could not follow through with the trade as I was getting too many sells so I let it go.

Now I’m looking for a sell below the break of support at 530 but am wary of the proximity of 500 and the congestion between 530 and 485 . This is where I get a bit stuck. Playing safe I think the probability of a sell is greater a couple of points below 485 ( all hope lost etc) but I wonder if I am being too cautious: so what I ask myself is what weight do I put on the "congestion " ?

Looking further down there is a spot more congestion leading to a probe at 412 and then there’s 400 so if I have to clear all that then it’s a sell miles away below 400 ! This is a problem I keep meeting: below / above a probe from a channel or trend or triangle I find a spot of congestion , ask myself the significance, fail to know the answer and walk away as it’s too risky/too far away.

But is this the best way of looking at it ? Essentially I’m asking whether following congestion "trumps" one of the other signals so as to delay a trade until the congestion is overcome

Regards
Elizabeth

Have a read of what Elizabeth is asking, in the light of my comments on the video clip referred to above.

OK - tonight we'll look first at the chart of Billiton, just to (try to) answer a question from one of you - thanks George! -regarding trendlines. Then we'll ask if the bear market rally is over already for insurers and housebuilders by looking at the charts of Aviva and Bellway. Finally there's a chart of Informa, again by way of answering a question - this time about channels.

That's yer lot then - I'm off now to watch the clouds go by, from the comfort of a sunlounger strategically placed near a drinks tray ....so all the best till next weekend then.

Ian. (And no, I don't drink a lot. I spill most of it.)

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.