Well, here we are at last - it's now officially autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. The "summer of madness" is no more - will you miss it? One thing is certain - the autumn colours this year are nothing short of stunning in these parts - almost as stunning as the brilliantly simple and elegant solution the Bernanke one has arrived at, to solve the USA's economic woes in one swoop. Why did nobody think of this before? It's just so obvious once it has been pointed out - a bit like the invention of the safety pin, or sticking plaster. So what's the Bernanke plan? He has told the Chinese to start spending more money on buying lots of Western consumer goods. Wow. How I wish I had thought of that. Wait a minute - hasn't that idea been touted for years? And are the Chinese dumb enough to fall for it? Sure, China has a massive population, many of whom have more dosh in their pockets than ever they used to have, but they also have a pretty good grasp of the concepts of "being thrifty" and "putting something away for a rainy day". And if ever they needed reinforcement of such ideas, they need only to look at what's going on in Ben's economy at the moment. Sticking plaster wrapped up in bandages and held in place by safety pins is about the only solution the US Fed currently has to offer, when all is said and done. The Obama one's "solution" is to appoint a "pay tsar" who will cut the salaries of execs working for the "bailed out" institutions - like AIG and so on. Gosh - earth shattering stuff indeed eh?

Meanwhile, the state of Hawaii announces that schools will only be able to open four days a week, and teachers' pay is being cut by 8%, to try to slow down the growth of a huge budget deficit. And of course you know from these ramblings that California can only meantime pay its staff by handing out IOUs - and if you have a few moments to spare, type "Texas" into the WICS search engine. Then there's the latest JP Morgan report on commercial property to consider: "Deleveraging (of commercial mortgage - backed securities) has not really started yet. We expect banks, governments and corporates (sic) to become sellers in 2010". Oh yes - plenty more toxic waste (you'll need to set aside a few hours if you type that into the search engine!) is still to surface, of that we may be certain.

In Blighty, there's a bit of "shock - horror!" on the go among "City economists" - whoever they might be. Seemingly they had "all" predicted a return to growth for the UK by the third quarter of this year. So what actually were the figures? Minus 0.4%, confirming the "longest recession on record". But Wee Allie the UK chancellor is sticking to his belief that growth will return by Christmas - doubtless nicely wrapped up in Santa's sack.....yet the day after the figures were announced, what happened to the FTSE100? That's right - it went UP...

So is the oft - predicted market crash actually going to arrive, or has it been abandoned now, due to a general lack of interest? Sadly, it's definitely going to make an appearance in the not too distant future, and as discussed so frequently in these ramblings, we need to try to be prepared for it as best we can. (Note the "sadly" in the previous sentence, by the way - it gets truly tedious having to answer emails from those asking why IW is such a gloomy, pessimistic kind of a fellow! NOTHING about this recession and imminent crash gives me the slightest pleasure - not even "being right" when it all begins. Yes, there are going to be boundless trading opportunities and I'll have no hesitation in taking them, and I'll be happy to bank the profits - but in no sense at all will I revel in the misfortune of others......well, maybe the Broon one could be an exception......)

Anyway, enough of the "touchy - feely" before you think I'm getting soft, and on to a few bits and pieces before we look at a chart or two.

First, it was interesting to hear Mervyn the BoE governor person attacking the big banks - like a famous political observation of a few years ago, the bankers are probably feeling like they have just been savaged by a sheep.

And still with banks - isn't it amazing how many bank chairpeople have the same first name? When this grizzly ol' bear were but a lad, a lot of youngsters were called "Charles" and "Andrew" for some unfathomable reason. Then there was a time when "Kevin" seemed to be in favour, but now the top people all seem to be called "Lord"......anyway, Lord Whateverhisname at Goldmans was trying to defend huge bonuses the other day, by suggesting that "We should be thinking about the medium term common good, not the short term common good." If anyone can provide a translation, it would be great to receive it please. And no doubt the Branson one will shortly change his first name to Lord, what with his offer to buy Northern Wreck being "considered". Lord Williams of Bear Cave just doesn't quite do it though, does it?

Anyway, moving along before the guys in the white coats catch up, it was amusing to note the story about the Northwest Airlines pilots who were having some kind of "deep discussion" and overflew their destination by 150 miles - the funniest bit was the Yank way of explaining what had happened - "The pilots momentarily lost situational awareness." No, they had an argument and missed their stop. Bedtime with no supper for them then.

Finally, back in the UK, yet another business went insolvent - when the guy running it was caught.......staging car crashes for £500 a time - quite enterprising really but maybe just a tad on the stupid side, using the same roundabout for all 93 of them......

Anyway, on that note, onward to today's charts, and first we'll take a look at that of Serco, which (having been featured here more than once), has maybe been a "watch list" candidate for you.... Thanks to "Jack" for the excellent question - "How high is 'high'?". Certainly it has been a cracking buy trade for several of you after its resistance break earlier in the year - is it now in a counter trend channel? And might that provide a fresh "buy" entry? Video clip 2849 (of Templetons) might provide more of a clue here....is there a bit of a head & shoulders forming? And at different degrees of scale perhaps too? Next we'll examine Kier Group - again on the watch list? "Vincent" is wondering about where it might become a valid "sell" - it has fallen below £10 now, but where might it be possible to "double up" if you sold it on the break thereof - or enter for the first time? We'll see what kind of horizontal support there might be, a wee distance lower. Then - to answer a question from "Ken" - we'll see that Big Yellow does "technically" show a "rising wedge" formation, but maybe other things "trump" that situation overall. After that, we'll look at another chart enquired about by the same (extremely diligent) "Ken": Go-Ahead Group was last featured in video clip 2767 and now we can see a more recent triangle formation. Does that mean it could be more of a "buy" than a "sell"?

OK - that's all for today then - time now to enjoy a bit of birthday cake and some fizzy pop at a neighbour's, where the 11 year old son has just become a 12 year old son. Maybe his Dad and I will forego the fizzy pop bit and open a bottle of something slightly different however.........

On that note, happy trading till next weekend!

All the best,

Ian.

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.