Well, it's great to know that following Grumpy Uncle Gordon's
final budget, "Stability is now locked in to the British
economy" according to that intellectual colossus, John McFall
MP. All of you who live in Blighty must be mightily relieved to
hear that, although methinks the 'lock' has been set well after
the economic horses have bolted. I recall asking some time ago
in WICS, "Where has all the money gone?" and I still
await a satisfactory answer. (WICS of 4th December 2005 if you're
masochistic enough to want to revisit it.) Anyway, there's no
point in rehashing all the budget - related blurb here because
you'll be well and truly fed up with it by now and you probably
took all of thirty seconds to work out the sheer cynicism of Gordon's
exercise.
Moving along, I see Substandard Life (one of my favourite companies
and just SO well run....not) is ditching another 1000 jobs, making
the redundancy tally 5500 over the last three years. All the more
'added value' for shareholders then....or maybe all the more in
the pension pots of those at the top?
And it pains me to note that yet another ostensibly Scottish
company is truly plumbing the depths - if you work for Royal Bank
of Scotland, you won't be paid unless you have a bank account
with them. It's scarcely believable but there again, RBS does
have the reputation of being the most ruthless shower within a
thoroughly ruthless industry. Gosh, what with Gordon and these
two paragons of corporate greed, it's hard to admit to being a
Scot these days - but honestly, we're not all like that - and
if you say we are, I'll get my claymore down from the rafters
and come looking for you.........
Outside Scotland, Barclays and ABN Amro (Dutch bank) are getting
together to "Create value for both sets of shareholders."
Ho Ho.
Moving on to the markets, it's still a bit of a limbo situation
overall and pretty hard to tell just what will happen over the
next week or two - certainly there's a fair probability that US
markets such as the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will make a
serious attempt at achieving new highs before they finally roll
over and fall down the other side of the mountain, whereas in
Europe the chances of new highs are not that good, and the eventual
drop will come sooner than in the USA.
You know I mention 'patience' rather a lot (type the word into
the WICS search engine and you'll see what I mean!) and now is
certainly a very good time for you to get in some practice cultivating
that most essential of trading attributes. When things are racking
along in a rather indeterminate manner it's a very good idea just
to sit back and relax, and only look at what might be termed the
'more obvious' chart formations. When the trends begin again,
there will be plenty viable trades to be had, as was ever the
case. Don't be in a rush! (And by doing proper research you'll
still find things to occupy you - the chart below of Tate &
Lyle is a good example - my thanks to David B. for having reminded
me to include it this weekend.)
Anent my suggestion that the USA indices have some more 'upside'
left in them, there's a chart of the S&P 500 to help you see
what I mean - just remember that indices generally need wide stop
losses and thus deepish pockets to trade. Don't be tempted to
trade them if you know you can't afford the stop loss, because
what you'll do (I KNOW you will!) is keep the SL way too tight
and lose money hand over fist. There's no arrogance in my saying
that to you by the way - I too have "Been there, read the
book, watched the movie, bought the T shirt......" That's
the reason why I tend never (well, seldom) to mention the FTSE250
any more - it's nicely tradeable often enough, BUT it costs a
lot in spreads IF you can get a price for it at all from a spread
bet company, and it needs very wide SLs - too many of you good
people have had your wallets badly burnt by it and I certainly
don't seek to encourage that - hey, I need some of your money
when WICS subscription time arrives! However, the S&P 500
at the moment looks like a wide SL would be fairly unnecessary
- have a look for yourself.
Anyway, that's all for this weekend I'm afraid - our Irish friends
who were with us last week left us a wee present in the form of
a nasty 'flu bug - sadly, they were suffering from it by the last
three days of their trip and now it's our turn. Every time people
visit via either Stavrosjet or Paddyair they seem to bring along
something like that and I'm convinced it's to do with lack of
hygiene in the budget airlines - safety might not be an issue
but the planes are never on the tarmac long enough properly to
flush the aircon and that's a known breeding ground for all sorts
of bugs. Yuk.
On that note, I trust I'll still be around to talk to you again
next weekend....hypochondriac? Moi? Anyway, there has been a massive
dump of fresh snow and sunny skies are predicted to arrive by
Tuesday or Wednesday so I guess I'll be able to force myself to
carve some fresh tracks later in the week - that should cure these
old bones! (And a hot toddy won't go amiss either.)
All the best till next weekend.
Ian.

