Hello again - and first today, an apology. Last weekend I referred to investment bankers as "crooks". A whole raft of emails arrived as a result - well, two actually - informing me that that had been a libellous comment and that I should retract it today. OK - I'm perfectly happy to go on record now, and accept that I was completely wrong to have referred to these charlatans as "crooks."

Whew - now that's out the way, let's move on, and it seems all will be well with the USA economy after the long weekend. George W. has said so. "We are on top of the situation....." Thank goodness eh? Otherwise who knows what banking disasters might have surfaced otherwise? The fact that a big mortgage lender in New Mexico will go bust later this week if it can't raise another $1bn is just a side issue then. I see wee Allie (the make - believe chancellor) has been insisting this weekend that "Banks everywhere should reveal the true extent of their losses..." Dream on. The "true extent" of bank losses will only become apparent over time because banks will never admit to them until they are totally self - evident. And believe me when I suggest there are plenty more bank losses to come! It's interesting to note that "short sellers" are meantime the bad guys as far as the media and the FSA are concerned - it was obviously their fault that the shares of HBoS tanked last week. The FSA is determined to catch the culprits. Ho ho.

Northern Wreck is to shed 2000 jobs, and Bear Stearns is dumping 8000 - some in London. The "blame game" to which I refer in WICS from time to time (type "blame game" into the search engine that resides above the archive) is getting well and truly under way, what with Northern Crock shareholders planning to sue poor wee Allie, and lawyers threatening the Bear Stearns "rescue" with their planned class action lawsuit: "excessive employee stock ownership.." Wha......what?? Excessive employees, certainly, but stock ownership? Do me a favour! As mentioned previously in these ramblings, lawsuits are going to be flying thick and fast before the recession finally bottoms in about four or five years' time. (Scary Granny's crystal ball is back on the mantelpiece - that's how I know.) Anyway, moving rapidly along before you get the wrong idea about the Williams mental health question.....

Shame about Blacks' profits warning after alleged "accounting irregularities" - seemingly a director has been sent packing - or is that backpacking?

George Soros reckons there has been "Nothing to match the past nine months" - he was referring to the turmoil in the markets and I don't doubt that he is spot on with that assessment - and there's a whole lot more to come for sure. It was amusing to read a report that called Mr Soros "the man responsible for Black Wednesday". Trust a journalist to get exactly the wrong end of the stick - in fact maybe "DON'T trust a journalist" is a better way to put things.

It seems the "final bill" for a few UK road projects is to be a bit higher than the estimate - £1.1bn higher. Gosh, really? How on earth could that have happened, with the UK government so well in control of project expenditure? Somebody's head won't have to roll.....

Next, it appears that the Volvo/Renault Trucks company is being fined $11m for bribing the previous government of Iraq with regard to "aid" contracts. The chief exec says the incident has been "regrettable". That would be the "we wuz found out" incident he refers to then.

Moving on, gold was mentioned last weekend in these ramblings - and look what happened during the week! What it is to have influence, eh? But seriously, gold, silver and the like have been the last bastion of "bubble economics" - the things that always go up when everything else is tanking, if you believe the media. A sharp retrace was inevitable - a "Great Buying Opportunity" then? Not a chance. Commodities of all types will fall and continue to do so (with rallies too of course) as speculators have to unwind their positions in order to meet margin calls elsewhere - ie if they get a nasty phone call from their broker to tell them that they can no longer afford their "buy" position in a portfolio of banking and property shares unless they chuck another few $zillion at the position......"deflation" is probably the name of the game now - and it's a word you'll hear plenty more of, once the journos latch on to it!

Good news for the UK retail sector though, from that paragon of statistical accuracy, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) - it seems retail sales for last month are "up 6.6% on February 07". Inflation? Did somebody mention food prices? And less discounting? Did somebody mention that? Hmm, thought not...

Another Fed interest rate cut looming, to (even further) trash the savings of the more prudent Yanks? Almost certainly. The Fed is NOT proactive, despite what pundits would have you believe. "The Fed should have acted sooner...." is nothing more than the plaintive bleat of the uninformed. It is nonsense, basically. The Fed is REACTIVE - it FOLLOWS market conditions - it doesn't lead them. Interest rates are set by market participants, who buy or sell Government Bonds ("Gilts" in the UK). If people perceive that the world of shares, commodities etc is getting mighty risky, they start to move money into Treasury Bills (ie government bonds). By buying bonds, they push the price up - normal market action anent "supply and demand". As the price of a bond goes up, the yield (the interest thereon) goes down. (For example, "3% Treasury Stock" means you get exactly 3% yield while the price of the bond itself is exactly $100. If somebody pays you $120 for your bond bought for $100, YOU make a $20 capital gain. THEY get a lower yield than you did, because 3% of $100 is $3, but THEY still get the same $3, this time related to the $120 they had to pay you. If this seems complex, don't worry about it - it's just by way of pointing out how such things work.) Anyway, the point I'm getting at is that three month T Bills (Treasury Bonds) are what tend to drive US interest rates. Currently, people are willing to pay so much for three month T Bills that they are accepting a yield (interest) of 0.61%. That's correct - less than ONE percent - the lowest rate since 1958 in fact! Where does THAT leave the Fed? The reverse is true in inflationary times when investors feel they can get a lot more return on their cash by buying property etc. They leave the safe haven of bonds and that drives the prices of these down - which pushes up yields.And that pushes up general interest rates - and so the game goes on! Does an understanding of these technicalities matter to us as TTEW traders? Not a jot! Charts are charts, whatever is going on - but several of your emails asking for a wee explanation, meant I felt obliged to give you one - I'm just such a nice chap. Anyway, speaking of charts, let's move on and have a look at one or two before we all nod off.......

First there's Aegis - last examined in video clip 1093 - you might care to refer back to it if you have access to that service. It has now quite clearly hit "horizontal resistance". Next, refer to WICS of 6th January this year for more about Punch Taverns - today we'll see how a triangle formed in pretty "classic" manner - and there has been loads of earlier horizontal support too. And as always, if you're not sure about such things, type "triangle" or the plural thereof into the search engine at the top of the WICS archive - as well as all the "support/resistance" permutations of course. If you're still not sure, drop me an email and I'll help if I can - but please use the search engine first. And don't forget - if you're also looking at the likes of Mitchells & Butlers or Wetherspoon, don't have more than two open trades in the same direction in the same sector - too many eggs in one basket can result in a raw omelette if you're not careful! Then we'll examine another triangle - this time on the chart of Robert Wiseman Dairies. We'll see that THIS triangle perhaps holds a whole lot less interest than did that of Punch Taverns - and I'll explain why. Finally, and still on the "triangle" theme, we'll take a look at the Nasdaq 100 (a "regular" in recent video updates) where we'll see a break out of a triangle, not to mention all sorts of interesting stuff like "dynamic" ("rolling") support and resistance.....

And that's your lot for this weekend. In fact, that's your lot for good if you haven't received an email giving you your new access information. I believe I have sent out the new details to everyone entitled thereto, as well as an invitation to continue accessing these ramblings, to those whose initial free trial has expired. Thanks to all who have already resubscribed! You are undoubtedly my favourite people. It is also the case that several of my emails have (as usual) been rejected - generally by the usual suspects - aol, ntlworld, hotmail and such. If YOU believe you're still entitled to WICS and video access, and you haven't received your new password, please get in touch. Please also ensure that mentor@trading-the-easy-way.com has been added to your address book - it doesn't just "happen" all on its own in most cases! Anyway, if you have decided not to resubscribe, I wish you well with your trading - and you may be sure you can "come back" any time you wish - I promise I won't hold your "absence" against you! (Well, maybe just a wee bit....?)

All the best for now, and I'll speak to you (some of you!) again next weekend as usual.

Ian.

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.