Well - there you go! Another year nearly over & to quote the much loved and about to be badly missed Wogan, "Not a child in the house washed." Markets are still "up" and refusing to do as they ought, like any other recalcitrant child. No presents from Santa for them! Not to worry - the Really Scary Granny's (RSG) crystal ball prediction for 2010 is "down, followed by down, then a wee bit down......." There will be retraces of course, but with the prediction for US Dollar strength in the face of all the bearishness in that area, now bearing fruit, it's reasonable enough for us to reckon that the old RSG globe of igneous rock will remain pretty much on the money - we'll see. Another prediction (and to be fair, it's not much of a prediction because it's already happening) is for a huge increase in "anti market legislation" as governments everywhere get ever more keen on interfering in their usual utterly incompetent manner. The US government - which along with that of the UK is probably the stupidest of them all - has just passed a piece of nonsense called the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act - adding a mere 1136 pages of rules to the existing rubbish. In the words of Dolly Parton - "There's more where that came from....." Ho ho ho - much good it will all do. And another prediction - which has been made before but has been a bit "on hold" due to the bear market rally - is that deflation will resume its destructive path throughout 2010. For sure, quite a few of you will disagree with that notion because you'll say that governments have been printing money hand over fist and that's why markets have been rising & prices have been going up. Well, far be it from this guy to be contentious, but the freshly printed stuff is only being used to "retire" existing debt - it's not adding to the sum total of the dosh that's actually circulating, and it's only THAT kind of money that is capable of creating inflation. Yes, inflation WILL arrive - but it's a fair way off yet, and a strong bout of deflation needs to arrive beforehand. "Value" is being destroyed all over the place - it was interesting to hear US Treasury Secretary Geithner admit the other day that the approximately $30bn of taxpayers' money that went into General Motors, AND the same amount that went into AIG, will be "unlikely to be recovered." You can bet on that being true!

Anyway, moving along - mention was made last weekend of the Broon one's notion that he can sort out global warming - and this week he was the only person to claim the Copenhagen fiasco was a "success". Gordon - as a junket it was almost certainly successful, but as a step towards improving the state of the planet......loads more excuses for world "leaders" to waste even more taxpayers' funds on jollies throughout 2010 then. What a bunch of losers (taxpayers that is - not the "leaders" - THEY are doing just fine out of everyone else.) - and lest you think I'm looking down my nose at YOU as a taxpayer - of course that's not the case - but methinks it's long past time that "people power" came to the fore again. Off with their heads! (Metaphorically speaking of course - there are probably few people less into violence than this guy - not even against snowboarders....honest!)

There's not a lot that's new to discuss this weekend really, so onward to a mention of "the award for providing the biggest laugh of 2009". There are a few candidates, almost of equal merit - one of them has to be the British bankers' association's "offer" to Wee Allie of a voluntary £2bn contribution to the Treasury, in return for "no windfall tax on bonuses." Excellent idea, chaps! Get the dosh from the Treasury by way of bailouts, to the tune of a tad more than £2bn, then offer that amount back in order not be be hammered on the bonuses that came from using bailout money to "buy" gilts......you have to hand it to these guys - in the real world they're mostly as thick as mince in my experience but within their own incestuous world they are stunningly crafty and certainly more than a match for any current politician. Next there's the matter of UK unemployment, which allegedly is dropping quite a bit. Hmm - do 21000 new part time jobs in December, compensate for the (nett) 69000 full time jobs lost over the past three months? Help me out here - arithmetic was never my strong suit.....

Then - in second place - is the Greek finance minister's assertion that "We are rebuilding our country's economic credibility". That'll be why they plan to hire a whole lot more public sector employees and give everyone a pay rise in 2010 then? Surely that deserves a wee "ho ho ho"?

But here's the winner - more than worthy of the award - it could have been scripted for the Morecambe & Wise Christmas Show in fact - the statement from the Dublin government that Ireland is now "out of recession". Oh dear - a short break is needed while I wipe the tears from my eyes and repair the split in my side.......back in a moment......................................

OK - onward to an email from "Alistair" and my response thereto - just by way of ending the year on a slightly more serious note and hopefully to help a few of you - which after all is the general intention of these ramblings, believe it or not. (Note to Alistair - you're not being singled out for "special treatment" here - but your email - and the types of trades you're looking at - will strike a chord with a large number of subscribers, hence the featuring of all those you mention, between WICS and the video updates today.)

"Ian -please excuse what may be a few simple questions. I subscribed to TTEW some years ago and as your records will note I've been paying my monthly subs. It is only recently that following me taking a VR package from work that I've been able to spend a reasonable amount of time looking at the markets and trends and placing 5 trades (with one still to open) with 'pin' money (although I'd hate to lose it) to get to grips with the fundamentals of your system. I have to say that I like the process and it seems to make sense

1. I entered a trade to sell Logica 9/12 on a break below 114 and am trailing a stop loss at based on 40DMA. I've been able to move this down to 121 but according to the sharescope graphs I should now be setting this at 119. My spread betting company isn't allowing this as it is now to close to the share price. Should I manually close out when the price hits 119 if I can't adjust the stop loss or leave it at 121. In this case I appreciate 2 pips is insignificant but I want to be clear on the rules in circumstances like this in case the difference is more significant in the future. Was this a proper trade to take in accordance with TTEW and if not why not?

2. With the way the market has been over the last year with big falls and then big rises most shares have tended to follow the trend - what is the best way of finding those that aren't just moving with the market? I also bougt an up on Admiral which is Ok, and up on Aggreko which looks to be doing really well and a sell on Computercentre. I have work in progress on a sell on ABF. Looking for a bit of moral support but won't hold you to it if you don't think these were appropriate trades.

3. My version of TTEW must be 4 years old - have you produced a simple one sheet of A4 on rules?

I hope you can spare a few minutes to look at the chart to confirm or otherwise whether the shares I'm trading are appropriate for TTEW and I look forward to hearing from you.

Cheers, Al"

Here's my response: (you'll see I have left the questions too, just to [hopefully] help you follow the overall thread.)

"Alistair - see below - and don't be offended by my criticisms - the idea is to be helpful & constructive here, in the interests of having you become a successful trader. I don't wish to come over all altruistic - I like to be paid just as much as the next person - but nothing gives me more pleasure than to see someone "make it" in this unforgiving arena! (Well, maybe 3 feet of fresh early morning powder under a cold, clear blue sky gives me more pleasure............have a great festive season whatever!)

Ian.

Ian -please excuse what may be a few simple questions. I subscribed to TTEW some years ago and as your records will note I've been paying my monthly subs. It is only recently that following me taking a VR package from work that I've been able to spend a reasonable amount of time looking at the markets and trends and placing 5 trades (with one still to open) with 'pin' money (although I'd hate to lose it) to get to grips with the fundamentals of your system. I have to say that I like the process and it seems to make sense

>>> "hate to lose" - I am not comfortable with that suggestion. You need to be prepared to embrace losses as happily as winners - start @ 10p a point via the likes of GG markets per the link on my site, so that losses cost very little.

1. I entered a trade to sell Logica 9/12 on a break below 114 and am trailing a stop loss at based on 40DMA. I've been able to move this down to 121 but according to the sharescope graphs I should now be setting this at 119. My spread betting company isn't allowing this as it is now to close to the share price. Should I manually close out when the price hits 119 if I can't adjust the stop loss or leave it at 121. In this case I appreciate 2 pips is insignificant but I want to be clear on the rules in circumstances like this in case the difference is more significant in the future. Was this a proper trade to take in accordance with TTEW and if not why not?

>>> it was not really viable per TTEW. Why not? Certainly 114 has been a reasonably significant price when you look back along the history of the chart, but it's mighty close to 100 & whether or not that has been of much overall past importance, it is still an "extremely round number" with a high probability of a bounce off it. Further, there is another formation to consider - I'll do a bit in WICS about this in order to perhaps make things clearer. Next (again re "round numbers" a SL move to 119 is not something to be considering - not ever in fact! In that context, 121 is "correct" albeit arguably a tad on the tight side still - you are almost certainly so anxious not to lose, that you're holding your SL tight enough to ensure that you WILL lose - that is the nature of this business, as mentioned more than once in WICS! Next (and I accept that this may simply be a function of your budget and thus fair enough) there are so many potential sell trades starting from much higher prices, that looking for a sell around 100 or so is not a very efficient way to use up one of your "trading slots" per the methodology.

2. With the way the market has been over the last year with big falls and then big rises most shares have tended to follow the trend - what is the best way of finding those that aren't just moving with the market? I also bought an up on Admiral which is Ok, and up on Aggreko which looks to be doing really well and a sell on Computercentre. I have work in progress on a sell on ABF. Looking for a bit of moral support but won't hold you to it if you don't think these were appropriate trades.

Admiral - if taken on channel probe/retrace/upside break, then well done. Aggreko - break of resistance that was also the top line of the triangle - if that was your thinking, again well done. (and not a million miles from a windfall now....) Also "well done" for finding & taking buy trades in this very much "potential sell" orientated environment.

Computacenter - your reasons/price? ABF - ditto?

Re "moving with the market" or otherwise - the only answer is "research, followed by research" - eg the recent mention of the Synergy director dealings found by "Ian L."

3. My version of TTEW must be 4 years old - have you produced a simple one sheet of A4 on rules?

>>> No, is the simple answer. The manual may well be 4 years old - but my (usually) twice weekly ongoing analysis is what keeps it all current. The basic "rules" have not changed, nor are they likely to - unless the psychology that drives market action suddenly changes - and I am not betting on that happening!

I hope you can spare a few minutes to look at the chart to confirm or otherwise whether the shares I'm trading are appropriate for TTEW and I look forward to hearing from you.

Regards for the festive season .............. and the skiing - may see you on the piste!!!

>>> that will depend upon where & when you ski.....

On that note, onward to today's charts and we'll take a look both at Admiral and Aggreko per Alistair's email above, and then we'll see what has been going on with FedEx - an American stock that is being followed by several of you who live Down Under - it has been featured here in the past and lately we can see that it's beginning to weaken, with a recent gap down. It still has to break its uptrend of course, but it has definitely fallen out of the rising wedge...........Then there's Logica - another of Alistair's ones per the email above - is there a channel to consider? Finally we'll update Templeton Emerging Markets investment trust from last weekend - the wedge now looks a lot more likely to be the better "clue" as to future direction than might the triangle.

That's all for today then -and indeed for 2009. As mentioned in tonight's video updates, there will be more movie clips on Wednesday 23rd, then that's all till January 6th. The next lot of these ramblings will be on January 10th - but I'll be around over the festives if you need to get in contact because it's going to be a "granddaughter on the premises" Christmas - for the first time in this particular house - much to be enjoyed of course! Certainly if the overhead weather co-operates I'll be out a fair bit during the day - loads of lovely white stuff has arrived just in time - but I'll be keeping an eye on my inbox from time to time nonetheless. On that note, I wish you a brilliant festive break, and may 2010 prove to be enjoyable, peaceful and profitable for us all.

Best wishes to everyone!

Ian

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.