You'll doubtless recall from WICS of 19th February that I reckoned there would be still more upward potential in the markets, and we're certainly seeing that to be the case - all the talking heads are having a field day now that the FTSE100 has managed to push above the magical 6000 figure for the first time in almost exactly five years - even though it actually closed marginally below that number on Friday.
It's interesting to look back at 6th - 8th March 2001 to see what happened then - I'll put up the chart below with little comment beyond what I have said above.

Certainly, the chances of ongoing upward action with any real strength behind it, are diminishing considerably in my view.

Across the pond, US directors are still happily selling their stock in the ratio of about 60 'sells' for every single 'buy' so other than a final frenzy taking the Dow Jones (DJIA) to maybe 11450 I reckon the game is pretty much over.

Just be very, very aware however that my comments above are NOT trading recommendations - these final throes of the bear market rally could go on for a good few weeks still - bulls are incredibly optimistic creatures and of course the media frenzy reinforces belief in the upside because as we well know, people are far more comfortable with a consensus than they are with the views of contrary characters like myself! And you know I don't provide any kind of trading advice - I'm merely showing you what I see (or think I see!) within this environment.

Moving on, I mentioned something the other weekend about 'tossing coins' and the rather remote chance of having 'five out of every ten throws' coming up heads.

My comments seem to have created some interest but rather than bore you rigid with the arithmetic, can I just say that the best way by far to prove my point, is the easiest one - try it for yourself!

Another topic that seems to be of ongoing interest is that of 'market manipulation/insider information'.

Now you know that I'm far too trusting a chap ever to suggest there could be dirty work afoot within the Stock Market - perish the thought - but I thought you might be interested in the chart of Fyffes Plc so I have shown it below, suitably annotated.

Next, many of you are currently struggling to find viable 'sell' orders to balance your overall market exposure (In general I don't like to have more than maybe 70% - at the very most - of my exposure 'long' in the markets, as you know.)

There are some sells if you look for them, but don't forget you have THREE options in the markets, not TWO as most players seem to imagine.

You can BUY, SELL, or...........................DO NOTHING.

There truly is no need (and no point!) to trade for the sake of having some positions open.

If you can't find a viable trade, stand aside.

If you feel you are 'too exposed' to the 'buy' side, what's to stop you closing a trade or two?

If you are uncomfortable with selling at present, why not just have half a dozen 'buys' open rather than, say, twelve?

That way if the markets take a sudden dive you won't have so much open to hurt you. YOU are in control, or at least, you SHOULD be!

Anyway, there's a chart of Rank below just to show that sell trades were still available over these past somewhat 'silly' weeks.

The final chart this week is just an update of MFI from 5th March.

As you know from last weekend's ramblings, I'm off now for a couple of Alpine weeks and my laptop is being left behind, so you won't hear from me till 2nd April. It would be good if you can 'hold' questions till after my return so that my inbox isn't totally overloaded when I get back - thanks.

In the meantime, keep an eye on Autonomy which pushed up out of its channel on 13th March - will it now retrace before continuing up?

Oh yes, and is Dana Petroleum forming another triangle?

All the best then, till 2nd April.

Ian.

.'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.