Well, here we are again at the final WICS of the year - it's hard to believe that 2005 is almost gone!

This weekend I would like to start with a 'thought for the festive season'.
How pretentious, eh? I must be getting a wee bit arrogant in my old age.
Hopefully not - this 'thought' is only to do with trading attitudes - we'll be bombarded enough over the next week or so with stuff from the 'what we should be thinking at this time of year' types.

Anyway, in response to the many (amazingly many!) emails regarding the 'get your head straight' aspects of trading that I've been covering (to a very minor degree) in a few recent WICS, here's a thought to chew over between turkey legs: what might successful trading, golf, tennis, snooker, target shooting etc etc, have in common?

I'll let you know my own answer to that, in the first WICS of 2006.

Moving on, I see the High Street didn't overstock this year for the Christmas rush, and that some utterly essential goods, like Ipods and Xboxes, may be in short supply. Dear me - how will parents entertain the children? It's going to be an ordeal and someone will have to take the blame. Hire a lawyer - special festive season reduction!

When I was younger, presents didn't tend to begin with a letter of the alphabet like 'I' or 'X'. 'Y' however did frequently feature in some gifts to male members of the family.

It seems that the luxury end of the market is doing rather well, on the back of the huge City bonuses I referred to much earlier in the year - as I said at the time however, this is likely to be the last year for some time before the big bonuses return and I don't think so many Ferraris will be sold next season.
The massive amount of 'merger and acquisition' ('M & A' in the jargon of the City) during 2005, is undoubtedly a sign the markets are at or very near their peak.
I realise you've heard that from me many times - like all bears, my current timing is lousy if measured in weeks and months, but nonetheless, I ain't changing my views any time soon! It consoles me to realise that in the long run, the bears will have their day, but on the other hand, I'm painfully aware of Keynes' assertion that "In the long run, we are all dead." And on that cheerful note, onward!

I see Centrica will raise gas and electricity prices shortly, following British Gas who increased theirs by 14% in September. Council tax too is heading ever higher, yet still the government figure for 'core inflation' stands at only 1.75%. Cloud cuckoo land must be a great place to live in.
(Oops - sorry - I promised my family my cynicism levels would be seriously reduced for the festive season. Or maybe that was 'cholesterol levels'?)

Moving on rapidly to today's charts, I see National Express has been knocking against resistance - relatively inexpensive public transport is certainly a sector that tends to do fairly well when recession begins to bite and such providers are always worth keeping an eye on.

Next, I have had a few emails regarding how long triangles can take to form - my answer was 'from a couple of weeks or so, to many months, perhaps even a couple of years'. (I'm not mad keen on triangles that have formed over just a few days, because they often suffer false breakouts, due to 'lack of energy'.)

Anyway, there's one below, of United Business Media, that took a fair while to form.

The other two charts are both of Jardine Lloyd Thompson - in previous WICS, I have discussed 'trendline probes' and this is a good example, this time of an earlier downtrend that became an uptrend. The first chart shows the longer term picture, and then there's a 'blowup' to show precisely what happened as far as my way of viewing things is concerned.
I would just ask you please, not to email me with questions regarding 'what to do now to trade it' - you already know the reply! (Could I also please reiterate my request from an earlier WICS - please don't send me attachments when you contact me, nor charts. Sometimes my connection is a very slow dialup one and it doesn't like big files. I'll find a chart myself if you just give me the name/Epic code of the share you want to ask about.)

Finally, I would like to wish all of you a very happy, restful and peaceful festive season, and may we all look forward to some excellent trading opportunities in 2006.

With every best wish,
Ian.

PS: the first WICS of 2006 will be on either 8th or 15th January - I'm not totally sure which at this stage because it will depend on when some of my relatives are arriving/departing for a skiing trip.

.'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.