Well, that was an interesting enough week in the markets - terrible
news from the USA about poor retail sales, a crumbling dollar,
and a collapsing housing market - but the Dow Jones positively
leapt up to new highs! If you have been following these ramblings
for any length of time, you'll know that my view of "The
News" and how "stories" might affect market action,
is slightly on the cynical side - and last week's action has certainly
reinforced that point of view!
Anyway, I was looking for a "final push" to new highs,
as you also know (to absorb the last of the cash from the Moms
and Pops) - and very probably we have now seen just that. Another
week or two - maybe even a month or two - of 'racking around'
with perhaps some marginal further new highs, and then down we
go in the express lift, with most - if not indeed all - of the
smart money already sitting on a beach somewhere, sipping a nice
cool drink and counting the profit - it was ever thus. I don't
suppose they'll be anywhere near an Argentinian beach though,
with the first snow in something like 90 years perhaps giving
the lie to global warming.
Still on 'global warming' (a huge politically motivated scam?
- I would say that's more than possible) I see the Yanks are being
encouraged to drink tap water to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide
released by the production of plastic bottles - tasty! It's all
many of them will be able to afford soon enough. (And before you
email questioning my 'green' credentials - yes, I realise the
planet IS meantime warming up, but I'm deeply sceptical of the
political responses thereto, and I also think the key word above
is "meantime".)
Moving along, it seems the darling new chancellor is planning
to relax planning laws enough to build 3 million new houses, and
he's going to 'tell' lenders to introduce European - style long
term fixed rate mortgages. Nae interference from him in market
forces then. Oh yes - and despite his clear admiration for the
way mainland Europe tends to deal with house funding, he's still
in a slight minority as regards the appointment of a Frenchman
to head the IMF: 27 EU members, 26 votes 'for', one vote 'against'......although
it's likely that Mr Darling really has no say at all in matters
economic and he was told how to vote - it's surprising GG didn't
just abolish the position of chancellor altogether now that he
doesn't need it any more.
And more stable doors being firmly locked as regards the Olympics,
with a headline saying "MPs Demand Tighter Rein on Olympic
Spending" - it seems your elected representatives are seeking
"better management of the construction phase"......they
wouldn't be just the teeniest wee bit late would they?
On to trading, and last weekend I highlighted an email from one
of you regarding "emotion" and how to deal with it in
the trading environment. That elicited an interesting response
from one of you, reproduced below - thanks Bob!
"In response to your emailer who was
worried about the emotion...
The way that I deal with the 'emotion' of
risk is, as you say, by treating trading as a business - in 'real'
life I buy and sell products, so I see trading in a similar way:
When I place a trade, I think of it as 'buying an opportunity',
now to buy anything costs some money, so in my mind I write off
the 'cost' of the trade as having been spent (in exchange for
an opportunity), so
having spent the money, I don't lose anything more, I can only
win (barring a major gap, of course).
As an example - say I am working
with a bank of £5k, then I consider that I have enough funds
to buy 40-50 opportunities. If an opportunity comes good, then
that is great, but say I only get back half of what it cost me
- then I consider that I can buy the next opportunity at half
price, because I have half the cost back from the previous opportunity
- that's a bargain!
In my eyes, it all comes down
to accepting at the start that I am 'spending' money when I place
a trade, so it has already gone as soon as the trade opens - that
way I can only win!
Of course I know that I need more to come
good in the long run, but, for me at least, it takes some pain
out of those that don't do quite so well.
Just my way of dealing with it. Regards,
Bob"
Perhaps that way of looking at things might help others too -
it's certainly worth considering.
As regards this weekend's charts, first we'll take a look at
JJB Sports (again in response to an email from one of you - thanks
John - wondering about "conflicting signals").
"Hello Ian: JJB seems to be in the final
stage of a triangle, top starting 24/5 and bottom 8/6. I'm a little
uncertain as to if the trend is up or down, to me the low on 8/6
was also the bottom of a probe below the trend line. Any thoughts?
John"
There is indeed a triangle and a trendline probe as John suggests
- there's also a channel, all within the same timescale - what
to do?
Then we'll take a fresh look at CSR, last featured here on 7th
January this year - it didn't fall below its support and now it's
looking somewhat healthier than back then.
One final point - please use the "search engine" facility
to find more about 'triangles', or 'channels', or 'trendline probes'
etc etc in WICS - it DOES work! (And if you are looking at any
particular chart yourself, why not type its name in to the search
engine, because it may well already have been featured here -
and if not, use the mentoring service and ask me about it!)
Okay - that's the lot for this weekend - I hope the sun is shining
for you wherever you are, and I'll see you again next weekend
- happy trading until then.
Ian.
