Well, here we are in Blighty for a couple of weeks, and settling back into looking at what has been going on while the laptop remained in its case during a somewhat longish trip - that included a couple of 'duty visits' well out of our way. It doesn't look like anything that could be termed 'new' has happened though - unemployment figures have been 'revised upwards', the retail construction industry is in meltdown, with over 100000 job losses predicted, the British Retail Consortium says that consumer confidence is its lowest since records began.....Oh yes, and the Council for Mortgage lenders is suggesting that "thousands could face negative equity", showing its usual ability to slam the door on an empty stable. And there's more - "Pity the Estate Agents" ran a headline. "15000 estate agent jobs are at risk in 2008" was the story. Pity? Estate Agents? Next you'll be feeling sorry for Gordon Brown. Oops - better not get Williams started on that. Last night's passport control nonsense coming off the ferry could get me going, believe me. Why are the Brit authorities so scared of ordinary folk going about their legitimate business? Does anyone actually believe that somebody up to serious mischief wouldn't have a perfectly suitable passport they could use to enter the UK whenever they wished? And they would probably fly business class anyway - they wouldn't be arriving off the livestock carrier pretending to be a passenger ferry that my wife and I had to endure yesterday!

Anyway, the other entirely predictable (market - related) thing that happened was the start of the next - inevitable - bear market rally in the latter part of the week. After all, everything is seriously oversold, isn't it? And the FSA is pretending it's fearless, growling fiercely and baring its teeth at short sellers - who are obviously more or less criminals really. It's all their fault that the likes of Barratt is in such a mess, and nothing to do with the fact that said housebuilder took on massive debt it really couldn't afford (about £2.2bn) right at the top of the market last year, by buying Wilson Bowden in some kind of frenzied land grab - and also by increasing its overall land bank during the same period. Barratt was known for being willing to pay "top dollar" and showed the same kind of housing market nous as did Saints Tony and Cherie of Islington the other year. I confess to a chuckle or three when short sellers take the (initial) rap for the fall in price or indeed eventual demise of fundamentally unsound companies. Enron was a great example a while back - and of course the Northern Wreck thing more recently.

It was also interesting to see that the bottom fishers are back out in force buying bank shares. Ho Ho. (Don't get me wrong, banks will rebuild their balance sheets by whatever means available - hence the reason why mortgages are costing more and more - and they'll become "buys" in due course - but for all that, they have an awful lot of debt still to confess to, before their shares start to look cheap. Nonetheless, they talk a good story and enough people will undoubtedly fall into the trap - including fund managers - to see a strong rebound before the next confessions filter out into the public domain.) And it's not outwith the bounds of possibility that cash could be injected into housebuilders over the coming months - the bounce during the week is no surprise there either. But the "true bottom" for both the above sectors (as with retailers) is a fair way below current prices still, methinks. Bottom fishing in a bear market is a bit of a guaranteed way to lose a fair amount of cash. Certainly if there's some consolidation within the housebuilding sector it wouldn't surprise me however, because eventually, houses will start to sell again, and prices will inevitably rise - as they always do when the wheel turns full circle - so anyone with the financial clout to buy up a couple of the current "dogs" and amalgamate them with a long term view, could do well enough. (And no, I have no "inside knowledge" in saying that - just the benefit of a year or two's experience of watching that particular wheel turn.)

The other thing that surfaced during the week is that "Bernanke" apparently is the only surname on the Planet Zoog, where "economics" is a totally unknown subject and where everyone lives entirely off absolutely nothing but hot air. I quote from Ben, one of the planet's elders, when he reported to the governing council about his brief factfinding visit to Earth: "The risk of a United States downturn has diminished over the past month or so."

Another good scam noticed earlier in the week is the "personal carbon trading" thing being proposed by some government numpty. That would be a bit like "football card trading" would it? What nonsense! (Why? Let's just see how it all develops, shall we? I simply can't be bothered getting into the detail because it's all just too silly for words.) And as for the "average wedding" now costing £20723 (according to some industry figures) - well, words seldom fail IW but wouldn't saving for a house deposit make just the teeniest bit more sense?

And the much bigger current scam is Gazprom talking up the price of oil. That's a bit like an estate agent talking up house prices. They wouldn't have the tiniest bit of a hidden agenda, would they? Type "whale oil" into the WICS search engine - oil isn't going to run out any time soon and its price is meantime in a vast bubble which will pop some time in the next six to twelve months I reckon. Sure, in maybe twenty years or so, only the very rich - and military pilots - will be flying anywhere because oil is undoubtedly getting harder to extract and after the imminent price collapse we'll see the price inexorably push upwards again, but other than for airlines, very little else will be different from today. Maybe the Williams love of serious horsepower as regards personal transportation will have to be curtailed a tad, but methinks that will be more to do with political interference in our freedom to choose, than with genuine oil shortages. (And the BP head honcho is suggesting that anything above $80 a barrel smacks of financial shenanigans so IW's isn't a totally lone voice here.)

The other bit of nonsense noticed earlier in the week was the "doubling of funding for failing schools" and the related "one to one tuition in English and maths....." Never mind whence the money will come, where will all the extra teachers of English and maths be found? It's like Gordon's thing about building three million new homes - do people actually believe it's all going to happen? If you type "affordable housing" into the search engine you'll get a wee bit more insight into the efficacy of my Really Scary Granny's crystal ball......Oh, and according to the relevant government department, these new homes still need to be built because "There is a long term mismatch between supply and demand." Yes, Ms government spokesperson, that might well be true, but you have got your thinking thereon, exactly 180 degrees out of kilter with reality. Oh well - it gives this grumpy old guy fodder for these ramblings so why should I complain? Given that I pay no UK taxes (other than VAT and fuel duty when I'm there, of course) you may be assured I'm NOT complaining - indeed the general IW feeling is merely one of slight bewilderment that the citizens of Blighty just seem to roll over and let "Them" get away with anything and everything at every turn. Protest at injustice and standing up for oneself seem to have gone totally out of fashion.

Finally, before we look at a couple of charts, the other wee amusement was this "Thanet Earth" huge greenhouse thing - 15% increase in the UK's lettuce and tomato etc production is planned. Everything will be provided within the complex - everything but the taste perhaps?

OK, on that note let's look at a couple of charts anent DMA choice - a few emails during the week were seeking guidance thereon.

And before I forget (thanks to "Ernie" for this) - a perfectly viable way to manage windfall profits could be to close out half of your position if you're allowed to do that by your spread bet provider (ie if your stake is high enough to allow its reduction) or to move your stop loss to a figure that would equate to more or less the same thing - ie if you have a "paper windfall" of say £1000 then you could move the stop loss such that the trade going against you would stop you out for a £500 profit. Please use the search engine for more about windfall situations - and my apologies for not having suggested the same thing a long time ago. Sometimes the obvious escapes me too! ('Obvious' in terms of making the suggestion, that is.) Anyway, today we'll take a look at the AMEC chart specifically from the DMA point of view, and then we'll do the same for DRAX Group - in both cases also perhaps to make the point that "buys" can still be found in these recessionary times.

The other thing to note is that due to next weekend's Leamington Spa workshop, there will be no WICS until the 29th June. Best wishes and happy trading until then - and to those of you who are attending the workshop - I'm looking forward very much to meeting you on the 21st.

Ian.

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.