Well, if you missed Friday night's two hours plus of pure theatre
(Winter Olympics opening) then you missed seeing the Italians
really showing their true colours.
What a spectacle it was! Innovative, artistic, stylish, and
passionate - a true reflection of all that is great about Italy,
one of my favourite countries. In fact, when I reflect on that
comment, I reckon it's my absolute favourite country in the world!
Irrespective of any interest you might have in winter sports,
that truly was some production, and it will remain in my memory
for ever - the 'dove of peace' in particular, was genius personified
- as was the depiction of ski jumping. The whole show was totally
wonderful, and the surprise finale, featuring Pavarotti, really
put the icing on the cake - as indeed did the way in which the
Olympic flame was finally lit.
So there you go - all those who thought I could only be acerbic,
have now been wrongfooted - I keep 'acerbic' for deserving causes,
of which there are plenty, fear not.
Just before reverting to caustic mode, I was also pleased to
read during the week, of Sweden's plans to have a more or less
'oil free' economy by 2015.
I realise George W. (whoops - acerbic again!) has been making
all sorts of tree - hugging noises lately, but the difference
of course will be that the Swedes will actually deliver.
I live in hope that their courage may kickstart others into similar
action.
Moving on to more immediate issues, I note that over two - thirds
of all Eurozone credit card debt, is on the overstretched plastic
belonging to UK citizens.
I also note that over 85% of all Eurozone surveillance cameras,
are in
the UK.
Big Brother is watching you as you spend, obviously. Just keep
some
space on your flexible friend, to accommodate your next gas bill.
Next today, I thought I would reproduce a question (good question!)
from one of you, and my reply thereto, in the hope it might be
of general interest.
"Dear Ian,
In the TTEW manual you said that the market makers were partly
responsible for generating some retraces (in uptrends) as they
persuaded journalists to print stories that would induce the lumpen
investors to sell and take profits.
I believe that most of the FTSE-100 shares are now free from the
machinations of market makers and (prices are determined) ...
by SETS.
There are still retraces in these shares (and narrow trading ranges,
where market makers try to induce novice investors to enter the
market prematurely).
I am sure that there are still instances where large ( eg insurance)
companies would like to make purchases of millions of shares.
I am sure that those companies would like to buy at a "rock-bottom"
price - well after an engineered pull-back.
I am sure that someone would like to receive the commission bunce
from the sale (and thus purchase) of several million shares. I
am sure that someone is still influencing financial journalists.
If it isn't the market makers,then who?
Is it former market makers or brokers?
Yours,
J."
My answer was as follows:
"Dear J,
SETS is a mechanism - an automaton, if you like. Who actually
still decides the price? The players, en masse, at every point.
The players are still influenced by the same old fear, greed,
and Pavlovian instincts and can be manipulated in the same old
way, by the same old people.
An example might be per your insurance company above - they want
a whole lot of shares in Terrier Energy, say, but not at the current
price.
They already hold a lot of Terrier shares, so they dump a load
of them at today's price without specifying a limit below which
they won't sell.
Strangely and of course totally coincidentally, today's financial
press carries a wee rumour about 'allegedly nae oil found' in
one of Terrier's latest fields. I leave you to work out the rest
of the story."
Next, whither the FTSE? I suggested lately, that it would rise,
and of course for the week, it has gone exactly nowhere - but
I'm still confident that over the next few weeks we're going to
see an upwards push - just as with a nice hot bath, the bubbles
are at their frothiest immediately before the plug gets pulled
out.
The US markets are holding up a wee bit better than expected
but in my Grandad's words from an earlier WICS "Nae lang
noo." (Until the 'big drop', that is - but it won't necessarily
be a 'clean' drop and might even go higher yet first. It WILL
happen in the not too distant future, though - I thought I should
add that remark in case you cynically think I'm hedging my bets
in true soothsayer fashion!)
By the way, speaking of earlier WICS issues, I'm sorry to have
to report that Tony M, who so kindly produced the index for 2004,
and who had been working on 2005, is going to be unable to complete
the task for various reasons. If anyone feels up to it (have a
look at the 2004 index for an idea of what's involved) then I
would be delighted to hear from you. I certainly have not the
time to undertake the task myself.
A quick word, by the way, re password non delivery - if this
has been a hassle for you, please see the new page on my website
(click on 'info') where my webmaster has very kindly put up some
material that may help you contact me more easily in future (and
help me contact you) if you care to have a look at it.
I hope it may resolve these ongoing issues that cause us all so
much annoyance.
On to matters financial and I note that Tesco plans to enter
the US market in head to head confrontation with Walmart. That's
going to be interesting.
Coming to matters specific to TTEW, it was nice to receive a
couple of emails during the week from happy bunnies who had spotted
the potential BAA trade before the Ferrovia announcement.
It was also interesting to see how Alba's recent run up came
to a pretty abrupt stop the other day - plenty unhappy recent
buyers there, for sure. (I don't mean TTEW traders of course -
I mean shareholders.)
On to this weekend's charts, then, and first we'll have a wee
look at Pilkington Plc. I'm going to show you the same chart twice,
with two different DMA pairings, and I'll also draw a horizontal
line on the first chart, but beyond that, I'll make no comment
because I realise
that recently I may have been overdoing the commentary a little
and you need to see things
for yourselves.
Then, we'll examine Burberry and see what might possibly be
interesting there.
And that's that for this weekend - I wrote this on Saturday,
because it's the Men's Downhill on Sunday and there is no chance
of my missing that event!
I may be slower than usual in answering your emails over the
next two weeks during the Games, which I absolutely intend to
enjoy. I won't be watching the snowboarding - as I said, I mean
to enjoy the Games.
Anyway, all the best till next weekend.
Ian.



.'IMPORTANT
NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They
represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market
for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances
should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose
to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come
to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose
to take'.