"Nae lang noo" ("not long now") as my Grandfather used to answer the impatient question as my twelve year old legs tried to keep up with his easy stride along the steep track that led to his favourite hill loch. How, at 80, he managed to walk so fast and puff away at his pipe to keep the midges at bay, while still able to talk to me, plus carry most of the day's fishing
gear including a substantial picnic, is still a source of amazement to me all these years later. I can still smell the Warlock tobacco as if it were yesterday. (And I still keep fishing flies, and his pocket watch, in some of the little round yellow Warlock tins he gave me.)
Anyway, why am I telling you this? Just a wee digression really, to suggest that it will be 'nae lang noo' in my opinion before Western markets resume their long downhill slide into 'stagflation'- induced recession.
What do I mean by 'stagflation'?
Essentially, a combination of 'STAGnation' and 'inFLATION'.
The 'stagnation' part is a slowdown/cessation in economic activity - we see a current example of this in a reduction of overall export activity, as well as the start of my long - predicted slump in the housing market (Have a look at a Travis Perkins chart) - not to mention the fact that the High Street recession is already well under way. (Still watching Kingfisher, I trust, after the little frisson of potential takeover excitement seems to have faded somewhat?)
At best, many workers can expect very low, or indeed no, pay rises as a result, and at worst, they can expect to see their jobs disappear. Now would not be a good time to start up an estate agency, that's for sure! And of course if Gordon keeps on hiring people, taxes will have to rise too, to pay for even bigger government.
The 'inflation' part of course is alive and very well indeed - I don't suppose I need to mention filling station prices, nor the latest British Gas hike, to convince you that your cost of living continues to escalate. And I see little prospect of a change in THAT direction - there are only so many Chinese bras a girl can wear, after all.
The combination of strong core inflation, together with low or no pay rises, doesn't need a latter - day Mr Micawber to spell out the consequences for the overall economy, for sure.
So does that mean I'm predicting the imminent meltdown of the USA and European indices then?
Time to get the 'sell' trades in place?
Nope, to quote Mr Paxman on UC.
The bears are beginning to sharpen their claws again - but a lot of them (including myself!) got pretty excited about a year ago because all common sense and reason was suggesting 'selling time' had arrived but of course my timing was way, way out - this time a wee bit more patience will prevail.
After all, what on earth do common sense and reason have to do with the public (in whom I include many pension and hedge fund managers by the way)? No, Mr and Mrs Sheep weren't ready back then for gloom and despair - and right now, they're getting a wee bit twitchy that maybe they're 'missing out', what with markets continuing to rise and the media suggesting that holding cash is 'crazy' when stock market returns are 'so much better'.
No, I think we're going to see a final burst of buying by the very weakest - i.e. the most easily swayed by media and peer influence - and in the case of the FTSE100, for example, I reckon if it can get above 5400 again, then don't be surprised to see 5500 within a few weeks. (The FTSE100 of course is currently 'strong' partly because of a fair bit of share buyback and merger activity, as well as a bit of 'increased dividend bribery' - sorry - I meant 'payment'.)
Anyway, I haven't been a million miles out this past few months with my predictions, and this autumn I suspect the chances of a rerun of the October 87 'crash' (It wasn't a 'crash' of course if you examine it - it was little more than an 'adjustment' after a massive prior run up), are pretty high. We shall see - just remember that all the above is nothing more than my opinion - it is in no sense 'trading advice' and should be taken with the same large helping of salt as ALL opinions!

Moving on, it was indeed amusing to read of the travails of Partygaming, that highly ethical, impeccably run new contender for the FTSE100.
Isn't it just astonishing how in the run up to its Stock Market debut, all its literature (checked out and backed by all sorts of highly respectable institutions, naturally) told us back in June that the online poker market was 'exploding' with a 45% annual growth rate? Gosh, you would simply have HAD to buy in to that, wouldn't you?
How unfortunate then that the entire online poker market seems to have slowed right down to just 4% projected annual growth only a few weeks after the Partygaming founders got more than a few £million transferred into their bank accounts.
It's just amazing how a market can change so quickly, isn't it?
It's actually quite a good example (in my view) of how people can believe what they WANT to believe, and how 'there's one born every minute' (a customer for an IPO [Initial Public Offering], that is - far be it from me to suggest there has been any kind of dirty work at the crossroads!)

Next, a question from one of you during the week was: "Ian, I have quite a few orders working now, but one or two of the charts are starting to look a bit 'sideways' - should I cancel these particular orders and continue looking for new prospects?"
My answer was: "You should ALWAYS keep looking for new prospects. If you have 'enough' orders working, but one or more starts to look less interesting than it had been when you ordered, you can always cancel it and replace it with one of the better looking (if any) of your prospects.
This is an ongoing process and you ideally should set half an hour or so aside on a weekly basis, to trawl the charts for potential trades."

Another question concerned how to distinguish between a trend change, and simply a retrace in an ongoing trend. My answer was to refer the questioner to various earlier WICS (29th May 05 and 3rd July 05, among others) and I also promised I would put up another example today, so since we have been discussing it, I'll use the FTSE100 - its chart appears below. (I presume you are still watching the Bovis chart among loads of others?)

I'm a teeny bit 'travel lagged' today, so the FTSE chart is this weekend's sole offering I'm afraid, and of course next weekend there will be no WICS due to the workshop, so the next issue will be on 25th September. But overall, you don't get that bad a deal from WICS, now do you?

Which reminds me - there's still plenty time to claim one of the prizes per last weekend's offering - don't be shy in coming forward!

OK - definitely time for this old fella to have a snooze - I love traveling, but nowadays I only enjoy the 'personal transportation' bit of it - airports/aircraft, stations/trains and ferryports/ferries really get the 'grumpy old man' part of me well and truly aerated. I guess in fact it's the 'arriving' bit I like best!
Anyway, all the best till 25th September.
Ian.

PS - I try to add new links to the website as they crop up, and thanks to one of you for sending me the new 'Citywire' one -it's worth keeping an eye on the 'Links' page from time to time, and Spreadex tell me the champagne offer is still on the go.

.'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.