Not your usual IW "away for a few days" then - generally it can be expected that "something" happens when my eye is off the ball, but this time, "nothing at all" would be an accurate enough description - or at least "nothing unexpected." Sure, UK interest rates dropped a bit and the Broon one promised the world and his brother a two year mortgage holiday, so all the talking heads got pretty excited, but that happened after this laptop had been turned on again & things were back to what is laughingly called "normal service" by Mme W. She can be pretty caustic from time to time - not like me at all. She's going great guns at the moment, helping UK Plc out of recession, but she can drive a hard bargain and has been getting pretty good discounts everywhere, just by asking for them. Time for everyone to try a haggle or two maybe? It certainly seems to be working for her - but she is better looking than I am........

So what to make of the rate cut and the so - called "mortgage holiday"? Not a lot really, would be the honest answer, if you mean "how will these affect the economic situation?" It's pretty unlikely that Broon's plan is much more than pre - election window dressing/bribery, and possibly very few people will find they are eligible for mortgage help. We'll see. And as for the rate cut - it has been predicted for long enough in these ramblings, that rates throughout the world will get pretty close to those of Japan over the coming year or so. As for Japan, it didn't work for them, did it? Even zero percent was tried for a time, and much good it did - and that in a country where people actually save money!

Speaking of "saving money", the other big thing at the moment as regards media commentary, is that mortgagees on "interest - only tracker" rates are going to see a huge drop in their payments come January, and that fact seemingly is going to save the economy because with the UK populace having around four million tracker mortgages and all that extra dosh floating around that can be spent on leather suites, new carpets, a wall to wall telly, etc etc, it will be back to "shop till you drop" once again. Hmm, I realise that an awful lot (but certainly not all!) of "interest only" payers are mighty irresponsible, and that the prospect of an "extra" several hundred pounds a month being "available" from January, might boost festive season sales. But for all that, maybe (just maybe) many of those in that position will realise that the way things are going overall, the idea might be to put the mortgage savings to more useful work? Certainly it is to be hoped so. After all, paying only the interest on a mortgage doesn't ever reduce what you owe - and one day your friendly local bank manager will want repaying. Rather than the new furniture, an ongoing "overpayment" of the mortgage interest might be the prudent move - after having paid off all the crazy credit card debt that is a millstone for so many of course. (This is NOT financial advice by the way - just a general observation as to what people might be thinking of doing. Far be it from IW to try the "holier than thou" approach - I too once had more than enough debt!) Sadly for savers of course - and for people just about to see their already diminishing pension pot "vest" - ie start paying them their pension - these risibly low interest rates are just appalling. But politicians are special people and they know best. Anyway, is this all finally going to save the world? Nae chance. Deflation (as in Japan) will gather steam and last for a few years at least, then as things start to turn up again, the inflationary floodgates will open because that's the only way governments will be able to service the enormous debts they will rack up. Then of course, to "control inflation", politicians will meddle as usual and interest rates will reach 1970s levels again. "Wheels" and "full circles" eh!

Anyway, moving along - something that struck me in conversation the other evening here in the UK, was that people are still largely "disconnected" from what is going on. Not everyone of course - but it was interesting to hear all the comments about "Of course, it's the poor taxpayer who will suffer as usual...." When quizzed just a little, it was evident that many people seem to see "the taxpayer" as a bit of an abstract concept - exactly what governments want you to see of course! It's time to join the dots and get real, folks - to plagiarise a famous poster, "The Broon one needs YOU! YOU are the taxpayer and WE the government will not rest until we have left you with NOTHING to call your own." Maybe that inescapable fact only hits home when YOU lose your job. If it's your neighbour who gets his P45, somehow a lot of people seem to remain disconnected from what's happening. Is it all caused by "denial" or some kind of superstition that "Maybe if I think about it, it will happen to me too"? Anyway, given the UK's current parlous state, this pre - festive trip is certainly an eye - opener, and maybe "denial" is indeed still the main emotion among the general public.

OK - on to less serious stuff and the Obama one seems to be promising to create/save 2.5m Yank jobs in all sorts of schemes. Laudable? You decide! He claims "But we won't just throw money at the problem..." Now there's an ambiguous remark for you. Does that mean "We'll examine each project and fund it based entirely upon its potential long term benefit to the US infrastructure/economy" or does it mean "We will examine each scheme based on its potential short term benefit to Obamaland and then we won't just throw money at the best ones - we'll positively flood them with cash....."? Pig farmers everywhere will be rubbing their hands with glee - all these pork barrels to fill!

On to some statistics, and US jobless figures were pretty bad the other day, with another 533000 redundancies in November. Given that the already unpleasant figures for September and October were mysteriously "revised upwards" at the same time (by an extra 400000 that somehow had been "missed"!) maybe that November figure too will suddenly become a lot higher come January? You certainly believe in all sorts of weird stuff if you believe the Yank government's statistics apropos just about anything!

In Scotland (following the acquistion of HBoS) it seems Lloyds TSB plans to close a lot of its branches, leaving the former HBoS ones pretty much alone. Seemingly there is "nothing politically motivated" about the decision....ho ho.....excuse me while I wipe my eyes - Rory Bremner certainly has some competition there!

And still with celebrities, Wogan's sense of timing is pretty good - Eurovision is well past its sell by date, what with all that alleged vote fixing and all.

Speaking of corruption, BAE (try the WICS search engine) ain't off the hook yet. South Africa paid twice the price for its fighter planes as it would have done by buying from the Italians. Presumably the BAE bribe was twice that offered by Italy then.....

Back on the High Street, not everyone is suffering and it's boom time for Poundland. Their chief exec knows what he's doing - Marks & Sparks would do well to hire him, although being no dummy, he would almost certainly turn down any such offer. Markies, Next, Debenhams, John Lewis, Carpetright.....how many household names are going to survive the 2009 - 2012 Depression? My Really Scary Granny's crystal ball isn't being specific about names - but it IS being pretty specific about the coming depression. Certainly, Lapland just hasn't survived its relocation to Dorset nor to the West Midlands, but maybe that isn't "depression related" so much as "ripoff related"?

And the Honda F1 team has ground to a halt, sadly - Renault next, followed by Williams? Soon it will be Ferrari vs McLaren only. That will make for interesting viewing....not. (Not that it has been exactly riveting stuff anyway - not since the days of Jackie Stewart & co.)

By the way - speaking of "fascinating viewing" - uncharacteristically the IW wallet was opened the other day to buy a 4x4 car mag to while away a small part of an otherwise tedious ferry crossing. There was a full page advert for some sort of fancy tent (no, I don't do camping but the ad was pretty loud and hard to miss). Seemingly, said tent can be erected in 30 seconds. It's not inexpensive, but it does come with its own instructional DVD. The DVD runs for 13 minutes.....go figure!

Anyway, that's all for this weekend, so on to some charts and tonight I think we'll consider the seemingly thorny question of "triangles" by first looking at a couple of "theoretical" ones and then at the one on the chart of Next Plc to see how it compares with the theory. Just always remember that chart interpretation is seldom exact - things form "differently but the same" as it were, as those of you who have attended one of my workshops well understand. Maybe the way to consider chart formations - whether triangles, channels, or even proper trendlines - is as you would view an impressionist painting. If you look too closely, it makes no sense at all, but all falls into place when you stand far enough back to get the impression the artist intended you should get. Gosh - that sounds a bit "zen" for IW eh! Anyway, have a think about it.

And on that brushstroke, all the best till next time - which will be 21st December in fact. There will be no WICS nor video updates next weekend because the entourage is heading back to the hills for the ski season after this somewhat tedious but unavoidable UK trip - the urban environment just doesn't suit this fella one little bit. I'll be out of contact between about 7pm on Thursday 11 December and Monday 15th around 9am. Please note that I'll also be out of contact from the time you read these mutterings until Wednesday morning 10th December - again unavoidable "duty"....aaaghh. It would be good if you can "hold" mentoring emails till Wednesday/Thursday, and then again till the following Monday - thanks for doing that.

Ian.

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.