Well - gosh, these ramblings often begin with "well", don't they? In fact, it's not that easy sometimes to get the first word written, believe it or not! Once that hurdle has been overcome though, the rest of this nonsense just seems to appear all by itself. This time however, "well" is high on the agenda - as in "dry well". The owner of this wee holiday cottage assured us that since the well had been "repaired" in 1960, it had never gone dry, even in the hottest of summers. Given that she is a very nice Swedish lady and thus totally honest, there is no reason to doubt her - and she was more than a little surprised when she got a phone call telling her that "totally empty" was how things were as regards the water supply. In fact it's certain that nobody had looked at the water level in years, because it took a fair amount of hunting in the bushes before the stone lid could be located - everything was covered in moss and had clearly been like that for a very long time. Much amusement ensued when the local fire brigade turned up and pumped 6500 litres into the well - at the second attempt - the first attempt ended very quickly in a major soaking for one of the firemen and IW, when the other guy turned up the pressure a tad too much. I know I needed a bath and clothes needed washing, but boy, that was some shower! Sadly, by mid afternoon all 6500 litres had vanished - clearly the well has a bit of a leak and the earlier repair has only lasted 49 years.........it's boiled water to drink until a visit to the town tomorrow for some bottled stuff, and more than a little (much needed?) exercise for this guy, carrying buckets of the stuff up from the lake to fill a massive jam making pan that now sits all day on the woodburning stove. And I always said I "don't do camping" - oh well, things could be worse - at least we're not in a tent!

Anyway, on to stuff more relevant to TTEW - and "not a lot" might be an accurate comment this weekend, after "the news" has been totally dominated by the unbelievably ludicrous goings - on at UK Plc, with the Broon one clinging by his well chewed fingernails to the cliff edge. Ho ho ho. If anyone dares feel the least bit sorry for him, just remember his "end of boom and bust" nonsense! (Try the search engine with "end of boom and bust" for more, if you can be bothered - if you happen to live furth of the UK, you might not be totally familiar with the reference.)

OK - that will be the only vaguely political remark here - honest!

Onward to matters more economic, and the "green shoots of recovery" are everywhere to be seen - how nice to know that the recession is pretty much over. The USA's housing market has seemingly begun to "stabilise", and Britain's property stock apparently is enjoying rising prices again, at long last. American jobless figures too are "improving". The Purchasing Managers' Index head honcho in the UK reckons the recession will be "over by the autumn." Told you so!........as in "told you that everyone would begin to believe in fairy tales". Fund managers and financial salespeople everywhere are back in "great buying opportunity" mode (although in truth, such characters always say that to prospective clients). Never lose sight of the fact that financial salespeople NEVER recommend ANYTHING except "Buy and hold for the long term" - self serving advice that does very little to help anyone else. This is a very dangerous time for anyone seeking to invest - it's all too easy to believe what you want to believe. (Actually, when I think about it - salespeople DO sometimes recommend selling your investments, although they always make sure they have told you in writing that such a decision is entirely your own. They then advise you move the dosh into whatever fund they happen to be touting at the time - again of course, this being YOUR decision alone. Oh dear.) If it happens to be a rainy day where you are at the moment, try the search engine with "great buying opportunity" and anent "investing for the long term" have a look at WICS of July 29th 2007......The serious point here (the VERY serious point!) is that ANY stocks fund manager can look good when a bull market is on the go, and even if they recognise current conditions as being nothing more than a substantial rally within a major bear market, they are only too happy to tell you how well they're doing and why you must get in now or miss the boat. Ask 'em what their "inflation adjusted annual percentage return" has been since tomorrow's date exactly ten years ago, before you feel tempted to "invest"...

Enough gloom and doom, Williams! People might get the idea you're a bit of a pessimist....oops, don't get me started! (But cast a glance at WICS of April 5th this year.)

Moving along - and being meantime in Sweden - it seems that Swedish banks are in even deeper bother than people had realised. They are owed rather a lot by some of the newer members of the expanded EU - for historical reasons they have lent zillions of Crowns to the likes of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Now that Latvia has seen its recent gilt (government debt) auction fail, the likelihood of default by all three of these countries, is extremely high. Not good news - and indeed (as mentioned somewhere previously in these ramblings) the "original Eurozone" too is going to suffer pretty badly, because many Eurozone banks (especially German ones) are massively exposed to Eastern Europe in general, not only to the three countries mentioned above. There is still an awful lot of unaccounted - for toxic waste floating around, that's for sure.

Speaking of toxic waste, it seems that the boss of Countrywide in the USA has been charged with fraud - hardly a great surprise really. (You could try the search engine with "blame game" and also "toxic waste" if you're new to these ramblings.) And - shock/horror! he provided mortgages to some politicians, the allegation being that he got away with rather a lot for rather a long time as a result. Surely not?

In Blighty, Barclays' got a bit of a nasty shock when one of their big Abu Dhabi recent "investors" sold out and made a cool £1.5bn profit - pretty good work! Seemingly the guy in question plans to use his profit to buy Heritage Oil - maybe a better long term play than leaving the cash with Barclays? He is certainly no investor - but he's a great trader methinks. And still with Barclays', they're meantime offering a cool 0.1% return on cash ISAs - don't all rush at once now.......

Anyway, not a lot else today really - just a question from one of you which is worth sharing - it's about the FTSE100 and where it's probably heading:

"Morning Ian, Hope the fishing is good.
Just looking at the 100 it seems to have formed a flag pattern with a stalk
from around 4000 and now a sideways channel between 4300 and 4500. A flag would
generally continue and often the same distance as the pole, but there is
obvious resistance at 4700 so this doesn't to my mind give a satisfactory
risk reward set up. However if the FTSE broke 4700 then couldn't it go a lot higher?
Seems unlikely looking at fundamentals but in charting terms after 4700 it looks plain sailing to 5000 which would be worth the risk and adding to an existing buy trade.
Just wanted your views. My gut feeling is if it breaks 4500 it'll go to 4700 and then crash back to earth.
Also how low would you see it go before year end?
Thanks,
Mark"

My reply was:

"Not a nice "stalk" really. Not a flag to me. Could break up out of horizontal channel above 4550 or so, but if so, it won't get far. If above 4700 then maybe it could get to 5000 but very doubtful. How low before year end? Timing is the one thing nobody can manage - myself included. Perfect timing = luck, pure & simple. So "year end" means little - but "some time in the not too distant future" will see 3500 revisited, then another rally, & after that the crash."

On that note, on to a couple of charts, and tonight we'll take a look at "stop losses" on the charts of Stobart and Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust - thanks to "Neil" for asking the questions. Then we'll take a wee look at the FTSE100, per Mark's email above, and see what my Really Scary Granny's crystal ball makes of that. Then it's off to try for a wee fishie or two for a nice barbecue - I know how to give Mme W a good time, nae watter or not....

Best wishes as always,

Ian.

PS: please note that there will be no WICS next weekend, nor video updates - the longish trip back to a rather more southerly latitude will be under way. There will be video updates (internet connection permitting) on Wednesday 10th, then nothing till the usual videos on the 17th - the next WICS ramblings will be on the 21st June. Mentoring replies can be expected until around 5pm on the evening of Friday 12th, and again after about 10am on Wednesday 17th.

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.