Hello again, and welcome to the first WICS of 2007 - a very Happy and Prosperous New Year to everyone!
It's good to see London achieving its first World Record of 2007, so early in the year.....or perhaps not, given that I refer to the cost of Tube and bus fares, which are apparently now over double those of New York, Paris, or Rome.

Mind you, can we trust that statistic? It appears (according to the Office for National Statistics itself) that "only 14% of the public trusts government statistics." But can we even trust THAT statistic? Quis custodiet etc etc.....

Anyway, before we get too mired in all of that philosophical stuff, here are a few more figures you might care to play around with (or not) when you're considering your own predictions for the coming year: 2006 UK car sales were at their lowest since 2000, and were down 15% in December, compared with 12 months earlier. The NHS medical 'helpline' is experiencing an increase in stress - related calls of around 30% compared to 12 months ago. In the USA, 70% of company debt is now considered to have 'junk' status, and vehicle inventories (ie stocks of unsold new cars) are at an all time high. Again in the USA, 'insider sales' of company stock (the American equivalent of UK 'director dealings' - I'm not talking about anything illegal) are running at a higher level than they were before the 1987 crash - and indeed at the highest level since people started tracking them officially. The top dogs at the likes of even Microsoft and Google are busy selling megabucks of their shareholdings. Would that be because they believe the prices are going to keep rising and as charitable folks they want Joe and Joanne Public to be able to share in the resultant prosperity? Or might there be a different message therein?

Oh yes, and seemingly 100% of economists and analysts interviewed on Bloomberg over the so - called Festive Season are 'bullish' regarding just about everything for 2007. Hmm, they forgot to interview yours truly....but then again they wouldn't know who I was anyway, thank goodness!

Showing my age yet again (not to mention a perhaps somewhat dubious musical taste - although I prefer the term 'eclectic') I'm reminded of a great song by the New Riders of the Purple Sage - "The Last Lonely Eagle" - I could possibly be called the '"Last Lonely Bear" were it not for the fact that I don't feel in the least bit lonely. "Alone" - yes, but that's fine by me, because I just love being able to say "I told you so!" and I'll get the chance to do that soon enough.

Still on the subject of music, I note that your Esteemed Leader was getting guitar lessons over Christmas from some ex boy band person in the States - I would have thought a more appropriate instrument for Mr Toenail would have been a fiddle. Nero and Rome, Blair and Baghdad - enough, Williams! I don't criticise politicians - honest, Mr Reid Sir! A New Year's Resolution for me perhaps? To be forgotten as with all the others well before Burns Night, without a doubt. I gave up Armagnac at least five times on Hogmanay alone.....shame that whisky and I can't agree.....

Anyway, onward - and next I need to make you aware of some 'housekeeping' issues surrounding the matter of mentoring emails.

First, the age old hassle with the likes of ntlworld, hotmail, aol and so on, is once again rearing its annoying head. My webmaster has been of enormous assistance (thanks Colin!) and there are some relevant pages on the website - click on the 'info' tab to open these. If you have emailed me and had no reply, it's because either I didn't receive the message in the first place or because my reply was blocked at your end. It is very, very easy to put right so please spend a few minutes looking at the pages I mentioned above, if you have an email address such as those mentioned - password changes are about to become a lot more frequent and you'll need a reliable email address in order to obtain these. (By the way, to forestall the odd 'annoyed' email - this is NOT your fault - nor however is it mine. It's just that some ISPs tend to throw babies out with bathwater in a rather imprecise approach to junk mail control.)

The other thing regarding mentoring is to please stick consistently to ONE email address - I won't bore you with the 'why' but to do so really helps me, I promise.

Next, a point about 'company information' - if you see something 'weird' on the charts (eg Pendragon's recent apparent drop from 500 to 100 overnight) then please direct your question about that kind of thing either to your broker, spread bet provider, or indeed the company itself. I assure you that's not due to my laziness - it's intended - as with ALL of TTEW/WICS - to ensure you get used to DYOR (Do Your Own Research) - because that is how you will best arrive at ultimate ownership of your OWN methodology/trading 'system'. Honest!

The next item to note is that the website ( www.trading-the-easy-way.com ) has changed a little - a new look for the New Year and a new web host too. The other major change is that from now on, TTEW will only be available on a monthly basis to new subscribers rather than as a 'one off' purchase, at considerably greater cost than that paid by you lucky people! Inflation has arrived here too.The result of THAT change will also be that WICS and mentoring renewal is going to be via monthly Standing Order only - albeit at a huge discount to current subscribers. The 'sweetener' for you is going to be that the WICS service will soon be accompanied by a substantially upgraded overall service, where subscribers will also be able to view online video clips as I go about my own chart research and analysis. These videos will be produced both at weekends and frequently midweek too, and will enable you quite literally to 'watch over my shoulder' as I go about my business. I know that a large number of you will be aware that you have already had a lot longer access to WICS and mentoring than that promised in the literature, and let me reassure those of you who have already paid £54 for the balance of a year's worth of WICS that you will continue to receive that until your renewal date, at no further cost despite this change. (If you want to add the video access then of course that's a different matter.) There is not an appropriate Standing Order form on the new website - you will be receiving an individual email from me in due course with the necessary information, but until then, things will be 'rolling along' as at present. (As existing TTEW clients however, YOU are not going to be asked to pay anything even close to what new subscribers will be shelling out! But PLEASE just wait to hear from me - don't email me about it because currently with all the changes, I'm more than a little busy. Just as well there's still no snow to tempt me away from my desk - although the padlock put on the door by my wife does help too.)

On to today's charts then, and first an update on Northern Foods from 17th December, followed by ditto for Bloomsbury Publishing from the same date, and then CSR from 26th November. Why updates? Simply because they seem to help provide continuity for many of you. And the final charts this weekend are two of Benfield, which are there (hopefully) to help answer a question posed by one of you during the week: "Ian, how do you decide when something has stopped 'going sideways' and might be starting a new trend?" Benfield has been 'triangling' for a while but has also hit support since last March, albeit on 'price spikes' rather than in a consistent manner. Overall, for me it's racking along sideways. My correspondent wondered why I wasn't excited about a 'sell' below the support on the basis that that action would confirm a trend change - and of course the main reason is that 'spikes' = 'unreliable' in my book. Anyway, have a look at how I have annotated that chart for more analysis.

And that's your lot for this weekend - as mentioned above, you'll be receiving an email in due course regarding the new system of subscription renewal - and if you feel it shouldn't apply to you, please wait for my email before you contact me!

All the best till next weekend

Ian.

'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.