Well, a few weeks ago in WICS I mentioned the fact that the scarier of my Highland grannies reckoned I had been born with a touch of the 'second sight'.
Last weekend, I suggested that 'the USSR hadn't disappeared, it had just relocated to the UK' and now we see that Gazprom, a true child of the old Soviet regime, allegedly plans to take over Centrica (aka British Gas).
Move over Russell Grant - Gipsy Rose Williams has arrived!
Chelsea Football Club? - a mere drop in the ocean.

Anyway, onward - and what a lot to write about this weekend, for sure!
In fact, I hardly know where to begin.

I guess I could mention Alan Greenspan's retirement and the wee job he has picked up, 'advising' Gordon Brown. I suppose it will augment the poor old chap's pension - better than stacking shelves in Walmart, I imagine.
I daresay however that if you read the financial press at all, you'll be a bit brain dead from all the millions of pages praising the man, so I'll merely state that in my view he has singlehandedly destroyed more ordinary citizens' wealth than the rest of the 'serial interferers' put together since time began.

As for his successor, Bimbo Bernanke, even I am lost for words and THAT is a highly unusual scenario. Long term sufferers of my ramblings can attest to that.

I can't be bothered searching through the reams of garbage he has so far spouted, to find the precise way he put this, so forgive me, Benny, for slightly misquoting you in terms of your precise words: "The United States' massive balance of payments deficit is the fault of foreigners, especially Asians, who save far too much instead of spending their money on US products and services."

Yes, you heard that correctly - saving is a BAD THING according to our Benny.

Now, setting aside the fact that 'US products' tend actually to be made in China nowadays anyway, the sheer arrogance of suggesting Asians should 'save less' to help America is mind boggling, and the inherent stupidity of the man doubtless fits him very well for his new job.
It always amazes me how some people of well above average intelligence (as measured conventionally) can be so monumentally stupid at the same time - you only need to have a quick look at Tony Blair (if you can bear to) to appreciate the truth of that.

Moving on before I'm sent off for 'retraining' (The Yanks even outsource torture these days so I guess I could end up anywhere) but sticking with matters American for a moment, it really can't be long now before the US markets start tanking.
Company pension fund deficits are over $450 billion and increasing by the day, people are at long last reaching the end of the remortgage road, with major US banks admitting 'big concerns' regarding default levels, and many hedge funds are having to limit withdrawals of cash to prevent a 'run' developing.
Net withdrawals from such funds are now running well ahead of deposits, and I have very little doubt the reason is because once you cannot continue remortgaging, and once your credit cards are all 'maxed out' then your final recourse to top up your too - small salary, is to begin using up what paltry savings you might have stashed away for a rainy day.

The limiting of withdrawals is a sure sign of fear among fund managers, and I'm certain it won't work anyway - indeed it may even shorten the timescale towards panic because historically that's what has always happened. (By the way, Germany's Deutsche Bank capped withdrawals from its main Property Investment Fund on 16th December last year, as people began emptying their accounts in the final runup to Christmas, so the 'panic thing' is getting close to rearing its head in parts of the Eurozone too.)

It's little surprise then, that the indices across the pond are starting to crumble at the edges, as suggested in WICS the other weekend, and once they DO really start to drop, will they drop far and fast? I think so!

On this side of the water, UK Plc struggles manfully on for the moment, and it sure is frothy out there! Centrica, Lloyds TSB etc etc are indicative of frantic M&A activity as touched on in an earlier WICS, and I have very little doubt that we'll see a few more months of rising markets as the froth sloshes around - that kind of euphoria has a habit of sucking in the very last of the sheep as they mindlessly flock around. "Last chance to buy - don't miss out - you'll regret it for ever!" Yeah, right.

"Get your Northern Rock six times salary mortgage now - AND borrow up to 125% of the valuation - go on, you know you want to!"

I'm not joking - that IS the latest mortgage product, from a company that at the very same time as it is trying to snare people with such a pathetically irresponsible product, admits to having 'increasing arrears, defaults, and repossession orders to deal with'.
Northern Rock alone also physically repossessed 576 houses last year, and that figure represents but the tip of an iceberg of misery, because actual repossession is a truly last resort. Why? Because the lenders actually care about you? Do me a favour!

It's because they don't want too much 'distressed' property coming on the market in case people wise up and prices really start to drop. Aside from governments, I very much doubt if there is any organisation on the planet that's run by individuals more callous than bankers.

Anyway, I'm obviously wrong in being concerned about public indebtedness, job losses, rising inflation and so on, because according to the media, there will now be no house price collapse and that's official. Even Capital Economics have now given in to the 'consensus' and reckon prices have 'stabilised' - the Daily Blah of course is suggesting that 'if you don't buy a house soon, you'll regret it'. Where have I heard THAT before?

No, I'm sorry to continually chuck a spanner in the works (actually, I'm sure you know I'm lying - I'm not the least bit sorry) but the fact is, while I'm not trying to be at all snooty about debt - I too once had a mortgage and a car loan - I really, really believe that a serious effort should be made by a vast number of people, to REDUCE, not add to, their current borrowings.

Be really unpopular with Bernanke - save a little more!

One of my relatives (in a very well paid oil industry job - pretty secure I suspect for his working lifetime) has a nice modern car for pleasure use, his wife's school run obligations etc, but he himself drives a 'shed' (that cost him £150) to work. It's reliable, it gets him there and back, it sits all day on a main road through an industrial estate because the company's entire yard is currently choc a bloc with oil exploration gear in transit to somewhere.
One of his colleagues simply cannot get his head around this.
HE has just moved house (upgraded, naturally) and has taken out sufficient extra mortgage to buy a new car. A Porsche Cayenne no less. And he looks down his nose from the driving seat at my relative, as the shed starts up with a clatter from its injector pump.
But where does he have to park his posemobile? Correct - on the same busy road. Has it received a dent or two? Oh yes. Is he upset? Oh yes. Will it (even though it's a Porsche - of sorts) be reposing in the great scrapyard in the sky long before the mortgage is paid off? Probably.
So which car owner out of these two, is the more likely to retire comfortably debt free? Not a lot of prize money at stake for working that one out, eh?

Gosh, it's easily seen that my shoulder must still be hurting! (Thanks by the way for the concerned emails - the person who suggested that 'it's an ill wind' is of course absolutely correct, because my enforced sidelining from the ski slopes has brought forward the proposed release date both of the 'workshop video' and the Forex course.
I expect the former to be available in about three weeks, and the latter, about a week or so later. After that, you can expect me to go missing for at least a fortnight!)

While I remember, to answer a few emails about the Forex course, no, it has NOT yet been launched - you must be confusing it with something else.

Moving on to today's charts, we'll have a look first at Scottish Power, because a while back, Gazprom was 'associated' with a bit of a rumour around it and now with the Centrica thing on the go, it's worth examining the chart for the 'technical picture' just in case it might look interesting.
If you remember from the TTEW manual: 'Trade the rumour, exit the fact'. (In no sense am I suggesting you trade Scottish Power - decisions like that are YOURS, not mine - but have a wee look at the chart anyway.)

Next, we'll have a look at the chart of Millenium & Copthorne Hotels, to see how patience, and an unemotional approach, can reward 'perfect' trade management.

Then we'll examine the John Wood Group chart to see if we can work out what might happen next.

And that's your lot for this weekend - that's your lot for good in fact, if your 'free sub' has expired, because the password will change on Friday at around 1700 hrs UK time. (10th February)

If you have not received an email advising you of that, it's simply because your free access hasn't yet expired, or of course because you have already paid.

NB - I have NOT yet sent out the new password so please don't worry about that - you WILL receive it during this coming week if you are entitled to it!

(Actually - and please refer to last weekend's WICS too regarding this point - some of you may NOT receive the new password even though you HAVE paid, or are still entitled to the free issues. Why not? - Because there are still one or two of you on ntlworld or tesco.net addresses, AND currently - due seemingly to a new raft of v*r*ses out there - I'm getting a lot of bouncebacks from Hotmail, AOL and Yahoo accounts. PLEASE, if this applies to YOU, contact my webmaster who has so kindly agreed to advise on the matter. And PLEASE don't think he has some kind of hidden agenda here. Email efficiency is sometimes not all it's cracked up to be and many people seem to find that hard to accept. As far as I'm concerned, I have banged on about the matter long enough and if you can't, nor won't, sort matters out then it's hardly MY fault if you can no longer log in to the WICS archive!)

Anyway - must rush - appointment with masseur looming! (Maybe it will be a masseuse this weekend - my wife is coming along too just to watch over me! I'm not entirely sure if the treatment isn't worse than the injury.)

All the best till next weekend, and to those of you not meantime planning to renew your subscriptions, a sincere 'thank you' for having stuck with me for as long as you have done - and indeed for having purchased the course in the first place!
I very much hope you feel you have gained something from TTEW, and I wish you a happy and successful trading career.

Ian.

PS: Have a look at Kenmare Resources, & make sure you check out Director Dealings. (Remember Numis last weekend?)

.'IMPORTANT NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose to take'.