Well, there you go then - Williams takes his eye off the ball
for just a few days, and look what happens! It (the 'biggish drop')
was all my fault of course. At least that's what one or two of
you seem to think now that stock markets appear to have ended
their seemingly relentless upwards climb. It certainly proves
the absolute necessity of using stop losses, eh? When you're in
'buy' trades, an overall market correction of such relative speed
and magnitude will almost certainly take you out of open positions
- that is simply part of the 'deal' in this business I'm afraid.
So did last week's action mark the end of bullish activity? Not
at all - it only indicated that 'the change' to which I occasionally
allude, is gathering pace and is perhaps becoming slightly more
evident to a greater number of people, as it begins to accelerate
a little. Why do I say that? Simply because the bulls won't give
up that easily - they never do. "A great buying opportunity"
is their current line, and there's little doubt that the markets
will rebound, perhaps fairly significantly, in the coming week.
(It's likely though that they may drop a little lower before the
bounce comes.)
More evidence that 'the change' is gathering pace can be found
in the USA, where not only are mortgage companies now tightening
up their lending criteria to a considerable degree, but a Pittsburgh
bank (Metro Savings) has been forced to close its doors for good
- and not all its depositors are going to get their money back
by any means. The sub - prime mortgage industry of course has
been in dire straits for over two years (as you'll know if you
have been a WICS subscriber over that period) but it's only recently
that Joe Public seems to be waking up to the fact. Once more banks
go bust and more depositors start losing their nest eggs, you
can expect to see a snowball effect gathering pace a whole lot
quicker than you might imagine.
Outwith the mortgage market too, some of the huge commercial
banks/stockbrokers/financial wizards in the USA are (all of a
sudden) not looking so robust - Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch,
Citigroup.......hmm - interesting.
In percentage terms, the price drops last week weren't actually
all that enormous and in my view they're meantime little more
than a wake - up call which the bulls (who are still in a huge
majority) will simply ignore - so I wouldn't be getting overly
excited yet about selling the market.
£18bn was added during the week to the pension fund deficits
of the FTSE100 components - but nobody among the trustees seems
to be bothered. Ah well, give them another few months and their
complacency will vanish.
It was interesting to note that Lloyds TSB seems to have woken
up at long last to the fact that customers don't much care for
offshore call centres - will that mean better service? Who knows?
- it is a bank after all.
On then to today's charts, and in view of the recent price drops
we'll have a look at the FTSE250 - I haven't covered it for some
time for the simple reason that it's an expensive place in which
to play, between spread costs and the need to keep stop losses
very wide - and I'm aware that not everyone is motivated to trade
it. However, its chart currently lets us look at the correct way
to draw trendlines, and there's a clear downside probe thereof
too. Then we'll look again at Experian where last weekend we spoke
about a triangle, and you'll see both the (expected) upside breakout
as well as some 'triangle support' following the ensuing market
drop.
OK - that's all for today - expect an upwards bounce in most
- if indeed not all - markets during the next week or two, and
then we'll get a better picture as to when the REAL drop is going
to begin in earnest, but as suggested above, there HAS been a
bit of a wake - up call at long last, albeit we need to be pretty
careful not to get carried away meantime, in either direction.
All the best then, till the 11th.
Ian.

