Well, here we are in September and still the major markets look
to be heading upwards, so am I about to 'capitulate' and finally
admit my overall bearish view is just plain wrong? I know plenty
of previously bearish commentators have recently thrown in the
towel. Hmm, might I be tempted to do likewise? Nah, I'm just a
stubborn, grumpy old codger - or so my family contends - so I'll
stick with my overall view that there's going to be a great big
slide into the winter - and I'm not talking about the Hahnenkamm
either! (A famous downhill racing course in Austria - probably
the scariest in the entire world.)
A few UK headlines during the past week only serve to reinforce
my view that markets are in their final 'peaking' throes:
"Consumer Confidence Undented By Rate Rise", "Retail
Sales At Highest August Pace For Two Years", "Housing
Market Still In Rude Health" - I could go on. Just who actually
believes all that shameless spin? Very soon now, there are going
to be one or two auction sales of houses - 'distress sales' in
effect - where people can no longer afford their mortgage payments
- and there is going to be a very unpleasant outcome when the
reserve price is not met - nor anywhere near met. And THAT will
finally bring home (excuse the pun) to people that their house
is 'worth' nowhere close to what they have been led to believe
- which in turn will at long last mark the beginning of a major
property market correction. That process of course has already
started but for now, the media is still blissfully (wilfully)
unaware of the fact. My American brother in law tells me that
on his side of the pond, 'distress sales' are already in full
swing and the properties involved are typically fetching around
50% of their previous so -called 'valuation' - hardly a glowing
endorsement of the surveying profession! He also tells me that
'M&A' activity and 'IPOs' (Merger and Acquisition and Initial
Public Offerings) have more or less completely dried up in the
States, with 44 IPOs having been completely withdrawn in August
alone. Hardly a sign of underlying Stock Market strength.
Anyway, we'll see whose view turns out to be accurate as the
autumn progresses, but Williams is pretty relaxed about things
for sure - there are going to be loads of nice selling opportunities
to swell the currently somewhat depleted bank account! (I WILL
buy new fishing gear - it's simply an addiction!)
Moving along, I see that if you aspire to an expensive lifestyle,
a great career might be to become an 'adviser' to El Presidente
Blair's bunch of crooks - £750 a day seems to be the going
rate, where civil servants doing exactly the same job (ie not
a lot) earn around £120 a day.
It seems the bill for 'consultants' is running at £2 billion
a year - paid of course by YOU. The abandoned 'Home Information
Pack' fiasco alone cost several £m in fees to external consultants.
No wonder people resent taxation! (And of course, if these 'consultants'
are being well advised themselves, they'll be based somewhere
offshore and THEY will be handing exactly zilch of their earnings
to Grumpy Gordon, other than the inevitable VAT and fuel duty.)
Speaking about fees, I note that someone has just encashed a
so - called 'Savings Plan' that she had subscribed to via that
doyen of financial acumen, Scottish Widows. She paid in £500
a month for ten years - ie £60000. How much did she receive
back? £59702.
As she herself observed, she would have been better putting the
cash under the mattress. Oh yes, and how much did Scottish Widows
earn from the lady's negative return? A mere pittance, you'll
be pleased to note - only a measly £12016.
And I have not the slightest shadow of doubt that the so - called
'top management' of that bunch of shysters will themselves retire
on massive, inflation - proofed pensions - on that you can most
certainly rely!
Anyway, do I really care? After all, I myself entrust the management
of not one cent of my cash to anyone else - never have done, never
will do. Actually, yes I DO care - a great deal in fact. Why?
Because people (the general public) are not expected to be 'financial
experts' - why should they be? If I want my car fixed, I go to
the experts - my local garage. ('Top geezers', to quote my son.)
If I ever need medical attention, I trust that whoever deals
with me will also be an expert in their field - my own knife hand
is a little shaky these days and a DIY appendectomy might be a
tad unpleasant.
I don't think anyone would have been 'wrong' to imagine that
the likes of Scottish Widows (and all the rest of the same sorry
bunch) would be 'financial experts' and surely it would have been
perfectly reasonable behaviour to entrust savings to them.
Now in my view, if you buy, say, a fridge - and it turns out
to be a heap of rubbish, your loss is pretty small and you can
always just fly tip it. (Only kidding, honest!) If the mechanic
makes a botch of repairing your car, what's the worst that happens?
Generally, not a lot beyond inconvenience. But if you entrust
your 'retirement plan' to someone and THAT is totally botched,
can you wind the clock back and try again? It simply makes me
furious - indeed it's probably the only thing that can truly wind
me up, other than fly tipping - equally despicable behaviour.
OK - rant over - let's move on! Oops - nearly forgot one other
snippet - after all the excitement surrounding the fact that our
Solar System actually had 12 rather than 9 planets, 'the astronomers'
- stingy bunch - have now decided to devalue Pluto as well as
the 'new 3' so now we're down to only 8 planets. That's deflation
for you.
Oh yes, and ABTA bonding for travel agents has just been downgraded
and no longer meets Trading Standards requirements - check before
you book a holiday! More deflation then.
Anyway, what about the markets? Up a wee bit more for another
couple of weeks maybe, and then down, down, down.
Charts this weekend however reflect what I suggested last weekend
- that no matter the overall market direction, individual stocks
will 'do what they will do' - don't get too hung up regarding
my overall bearishness other than for index trading, where my
comments apply the most. In other words, whereas I might not be
desperate to buy an INDEX at present, a specific COMPONENT (an
individual stock) of that index might well be screaming 'Buy Me!'
(And no, I won't be showing you anything below on today's charts
that you might relate specifically to that remark!) The converse
of course is equally true - an index might be a strong 'buy' yet
a stock within it might be suggesting a 'sell' at the same time.
Have a look when you get time at the charts of Abbot Group, Electrocomponents,
and Big Yellow, which have all been featured recently in WICS
- it's good too to see Minerva moving so nicely, but today we'll
examine 'dynamic support' off a DMA by looking at the recent action
on the chart of Cable & Wireless - it might also be a good
idea to look at Director Dealings for that stock.
Then we'll see the same kind of thing on the Workspace chart,
before having a wee look at the Dow Jones, where it's the trend
line that has provided some dynamic support. (And always remember
that 'dynamic RESISTANCE' is just the mirror image of 'support'.)
And that's your lot for this weekend - there will be another
WICS next weekend (10th September) but then there won't be another
one till Cyprus Independence Day (October 1st) because I'm off
again on my travels and the laptop will be left, as usual, in
the fireproof safe. (You might well ask "Why do you bother
with a laptop if you don't take it with you?" An excellent
question - go to the top of the class. The answer is because I
DO take it ['them' - I have two, to be sure, to be sure...] when
moving from what are loosely termed our 'summer quarters' to our
more settled 'winter quarters' and vice versa - but our interim
jaunts are 'family time' and trading - related work is NOT part
of that area.)
I'll remind you again next weekend of course, and if you're a
newcomer to my ramblings, be assured that the two blank weekends
don't count within your foc entitlement - unlike Scottish Widows,
I won't short change you!
Anyway, all the best till next weekend.
Ian.


