Well, it's time once again to get the nose back to the grindstone
after a thoroughly enjoyable and enlightening two weeks in the
French Alps.
It's quite interesting (to me at least) how badly the French
cope with 'modern life' in an economic sense - catching up with
the last fortnight's news today I see there have been ongoing
demonstrations against proposed changes to employment law as it
affects younger workers.
In the skiing environment, it's only a couple of years since
someone was actually jailed for two weeks for daring to set up
a ski school in competition with the French national one - the
matter went to the European Court, of course, and I was more than
a little amused to see the plethora of new ski schools springing
up in the Alps with the verdict of the Court having of course
gone against the national ski school.
Maybe it will now mean an improvement in the standard of French
ski instruction, which overall is pretty poor - certainly the
worst in Europe - that's what 'protectionism' does to any economic
sector over the years!
Another interesting thing that rather came home to me over the
last two weeks is what is going to happen to air travel in years
to come.
My thoughts about that economic sector were triggered by sitting
most mornings on the terrace of a high level mountain restaurant
and watching all the jet exhaust fumes polluting the upper atmosphere
as they crisscrossed an otherwise azure sky. I noted on arriving
home and checking 'the news' that UK - originated flights are
set to double by 2030 and that currently UK politicians and civil
servants alone, occupy 100000 aircraft seats a year. The current
'environmental complaining' seems to be at fairly local level,
with protests against new runways and so on, but I reckon the
real problem is at 35,000 feet and I truly shudder at the long
term effects of kerosene pollution - I suspect that in a few years,
irrespective of rising oil prices, flying is going to become severely
restricted and that the growth predictions are simply wrong.
Duty - free aircraft fuel will become a thing of the past and
the likes of Easy Jet and Ryanair too will disappear as fares
rocket, so if you're planning that trip to Oz maybe you should
do it in the next few years rather than as a 'retirement present'!
I know I'm a bit of an 'eco warrior' and there is a certain bias
to my opinions but the pollution of the upper atmosphere is a
chicken that will come home to roost within the next five or ten
years at most, I reckon.
Buy shares in passenger ship builders? Possibly not the worst
idea you might come up with!
Anyway, that's enough Williams rant for today - what about the
markets then?
Not a lot has changed in the last couple of weeks, frankly -
as expected the FTSE100 has struggled to find clear space above
6000 and the Dow above 11300, both of these figures looking like
they will act as 'magnets' for some time to come, before major
drops take place. It would come as no surprise at all to see another
upwards attempt that will again fizzle out - perhaps the FTSE100,
for example, will hit 6050 - 6075 this week before it runs out
of steam again.
We'll see.
On to this weekend's charts - both updates of previously featured
ones. (12th March for Northumbrian Water and 26th February for
the Pru.) In the case of the former, we're looking at 'conflicting
signals' and in the case of the latter, 'windfall management'.
And that's the lot for this weekend - my next 'weekend off' will
be that of 7th May when a week's fishing beckons - I'll remind
you nearer the time of course - and a password change looms for
those of you who are approaching 'renewal time'. (I'll email you
in the next week or so if this applies to you.)
Happy trading till next weekend,
Ian.
PS: I nearly forgot to mention that one evening last week my
friends and I visited a casino just for a bit of fun, none of
us really being into gambling. Given my interest in numbers and
how things tend to 'cluster' as mentioned over the last two WICS
in regard to losing/winning trades and the tossing of a coin,
I took a particular interest in the roulette wheel.
In the European version of roulette there is only a single 'zero'
so there are 37 numbers that can come up, laid out in 12 groups
of 3 each (1 -3, 4 - 6 etc.) plus the zero on its own. The 36
numbers from 1 to 36 are split into 18 'black' and 18 'red'.
In theory, each number should come up with the same frequency,
but what would be the chances of 37 spins resulting in each number
from 0 to 36 coming up once?
Over a sufficient number of spins, running into the thousands,
each number will come up the same number of times, but in only
37 spins, that result is pretty close to an impossibility. While
I was watching the wheel (and staking a few euros on the strength
of my thinking about it) I saw nine consecutive 'blacks' come
up, followed by two zeros. What are the chances of that? Greater
than you might think!
Many times I counted what happened in 37 consecutive spins, and
never once did all 12 groups of 3 numbers come up - in one case,
not one number between 31 and 36 came up, and in another case,
13 to 18 did not come up.
Why am I telling you this? Just to reinforce the fact that when
you are dealing with small numbers of events, things tend to 'cluster'
and if you suffer a few consecutive losing trades, that is very
much part of how things work out and should cause you no concern
unless they are the result of imperfect execution.



.'IMPORTANT
NOTICE: These WICS charts are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. They
represent only MY understanding of what is happening in the market
for any particular share, stock, commodity or index. In NO circumstances
should they be construed as recommendations to trade. If I choose
to trade what I see, that is MY decision. YOU must, in turn, come
to YOUR OWN conclusions about what action, if any, YOU might choose
to take'.