Gosh - another weekend and another WICS - it seems like only a couple of days since my previous ramblings were uploaded! Must be a sign of advancing years I guess.

Has anything changed since last weekend then?

"Not a lot" has to be the answer to that - just the ongoing slow, steady slide towards the abyss, the same as has been happening for many months now - but things are undoubtedly speeding up at long last - the evidence is becoming clearer and clearer with every week that passes.

Taylor Woodrow and Wimpey are getting married and plan their honeymoon in the USA where the "resultant synergy will allow them to capitalise on their joint US land bank and add shareholder value....." Do YOU understand that? If so, maybe you could explain it to this country boy. I thought the US housing market was imploding - even 'non sub prime' mortgage debt is now in a mess - only a few months ago, a lender could 'package' say $100m worth of 'normal' (ie not sub prime) mortgages and sell that package as 'securitised debt' to (say) a hedge fund and receive as much as $1.10 on the $ for it. That's to say, the lender could make an immediate profit of $10m AND (with certain caveats) walk away from potential default costs. Today, the best offer is around 90c on the $ for 'quality' and around 50 - 60c for what's called 'Alt A' debt. 'Alt A' is classed as 'better' than sub prime debt but still not 'perfect' in terms of credit scoring. Nobody is even offering for sub prime any more. So if Taylor Wimpey - or whatever they call themselves - think their marriage is going to be a blissful one, spent in a lovely American home with roses climbing the walls, then they're kidding themselves. The only things climbing the walls are going to be disaffected shareholders..........

And in Europe it looks like Porsche will be making a full - blown takeover bid for VW - almost certainly to prevent 'private equity' trying to break up VW, which was looking more than just possible until a week ago. Bad timing maybe? My US motor trade contact tells me that no - one has even enquired about buying a Porsche in the past couple of months, and that the only showroom traffic through Porsche and Ferrari dealerships has been from mortgage brokers and estate agents seeking to sell their cars back, or cancel their current orders. Changed days from even a year ago! With Citigroup alone making 15000 financial workers redundant in April things are not looking great overall for the American retail sector, that's for sure.

Speaking of 'private equity', mention was made (in WICS of 18th March) that Blackstone was planning a Stock Market flotation. You'll recall I was rather less than enthusiastic as regards people being dumb enough actually to buy in. Interestingly, even the Washington Post has got in on the act - their financial editor is suggesting that "It's smart money getting out - it's at market tops that dumb money will overpay." I couldn't have put it better myself, even though I got there first. Maybe the Washington Post subscribes to WICS? Maybe Williams is deluded? No need to answer that - I already know, via constant reminders from my family.

And of course in Blighty the next big rumour is the marriage of Scottish & Newcastle and Heineken - heaven forbid that Heineken ever gets anywhere near semi - decent beer.

Moving on, I hope you're not one of those affected by the non payment of salaries this weekend - an April Fool's joke too far. Banks! I just hope they keep their promise that the debacle will not cost anyone. So much for modern technology - makes me wonder if I really ought to risk installing electric light.

Anyway, onward to a chart or two - two, to be precise (Alba and CSR), and both potential 'sells', just to respond to a few emails that have been suggesting a few of you still struggle a wee bit with the idea of opening 'sell' trades - I know that if you happen to be a shareholder in any company, the whole concept of gaining from falling prices is anathema - but in a nutshell that's the biggest difference between the 'trading' and the 'buy and hold' mindset - and it's the former you need to develop because otherwise you're missing out on at least 50% of viable trading opportunities. (Just be aware of course, that my overall bearishness does NOT mean I'm not seeking 'buys' at the moment too - markets are not that likely simply to collapse in the face of all the bad news - if they WERE going to do so, believe me they would already be down about 50%!)

OK - that's all for this weekend - WICS will be published as usual next weekend, but the following weekend (14/15th April) I'll be on the move - migration time again already! - so there won't be a WICS then. Just to give you some prior notification.

Happy trading until next weekend,

Ian.